Matchup analysis
Our model projects Valparaiso 33, Stetson 23 at Spec Martin Memorial Stadium in Week 11. That is a solid edge: Valparaiso wins about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10 points and 55.7 combined points.
Valparaiso is 4-4 against the 160th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27 and allowing 21.6 points per game (+5.4 per game). Stetson is 1-7 against the 110th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23.3 and allowing 43.1 points per game (-19.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Valparaiso by 33 and Stetson by 13 about 80% of the time.
Stetson gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Valparaiso is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Valparaiso vs Stetson: stat comparison
| Stat | Valparaiso | Stetson |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.0 | 23.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.6 | 43.1 |
| Yards per play | 5.10 | 5.40 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.69 | 7.12 |
| Rushing yards per game | 101.3 | 104.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 212.9 | 266.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 212.7 | 225.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 175.6 | 258.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.86 | 1.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.71 | 0.57 |
| Sacks per game | 2.57 | 1.14 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.86 | 2.00 |
| Stat | Valparaiso | Stetson |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.10 | -0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04 | +0.20 |
| Success rate | 36.1% | 34.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 42.0% | 45.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 7.6% | 9.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.9% | 15.0% |
| Havoc rate | 12.9% | 10.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.0% | 15.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.72 | 0.00 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.05 | 0.00 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.6 | 68.6 |
| Stat | Valparaiso | Stetson |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.14 | -0.14 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.02 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.18 | +0.15 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.10 | +0.27 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.1% | 31.7% |
| Passing success rate | 39.6% | 34.4% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.8% | 21.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.6% | 27.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.1% | 32.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.1% | 32.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.3% | 46.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 45.3% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Valparaiso schedule · Stetson schedule · all Week 11 projections
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