Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected St. Thomas 27.4, Northern Michigan 23.8 at O'Shaughnessy Stadium in Week 2. That is a lean: St. Thomas wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.6 points and 51.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Northern Michigan has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. St. Thomas is 1-1, scoring 20.5 and allowing 35.5 points per game (-15 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Northern Michigan by 19 and St. Thomas by 26 about 80% of the time.
St. Thomas gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour St. Thomas by about 1.5.
Result: Northern Michigan 14, St. Thomas 56. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 38.4 points and the total by 18.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Northern Michigan 23.8, St. Thomas 27.4 | St. Thomas 59%right winner | 38.4 | 18.9 |
| New formula | Northern Michigan 21.0, St. Thomas 30.7 | St. Thomas 71%right winner | 32.2 | 18.3 |
Final: Northern Michigan 14, St. Thomas 56. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Northern Michigan vs St. Thomas: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Northern Michigan | St. Thomas |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 7.0 | 30.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.0 | 20.5 |
| Yards per play | 3.73 | 6.59 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.02 | 6.08 |
| Rushing yards per game | 163.0 | 184.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 109.0 | 247.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 87.0 | 167.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 190.0 | 234.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.00 | 1.17 |
| Sacks per game | 3.00 | 2.83 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 5.00 | 1.75 |
| Stat | Northern Michigan | St. Thomas |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.12 | +0.08 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.14 | +0.03 |
| Success rate | 39.7% | 42.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.1% | 41.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 2.7% | 15.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.9% | 13.6% |
| Havoc rate | 17.4% | 16.7% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.3% | 14.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 3.66 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 3.17 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 73.0 | 65.7 |
| Stat | Northern Michigan | St. Thomas |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.18 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | 0.00 | +0.16 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.34 | -0.11 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.72 | +0.19 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.8% | 40.1% |
| Passing success rate | 41.7% | 46.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 12.2% | 22.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.6% | 34.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.3% | 31.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.3% | 41.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 22.2% | 39.4% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Northern Michigan schedule · St. Thomas schedule · all Week 2 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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