Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected North Dakota 34.9, St. Thomas 16.7 at Alerus Center in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: North Dakota wins about 88% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 18.2 points and 51.6 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
St. Thomas is 1-0, scoring 15 and allowing 9 points per game (+6 per game). North Dakota is 1-0, scoring 42 and allowing 21 points per game (+21 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between St. Thomas by 4 and North Dakota by 41 about 80% of the time.
North Dakota gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour North Dakota by about 16.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: St. Thomas 26, North Dakota 62. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 17.8 points and the total by 36.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (St. Thomas / North Dakota) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | North Dakota -27.5 → North Dakota -28.5 | 52.5 → 53.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | North Dakota -27.5 → North Dakota -28.5 | 52.5 → 53.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | North Dakota win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | North Dakota -18 | 51.6 | 88% |
| Market consensus | North Dakota -28.5 | 53.5 | 97% |
| Blended projection | North Dakota -27 | 53.9 | 97% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- North Dakota win probability
- model 88% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model North Dakota -18.2 · market North Dakota -28.5 · difference -10.3 pts (North Dakota view)
- Total
- model 51.6 · market 53.5 · difference -1.9
Model margin is 10.3 pts more toward St. Thomas than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | St. Thomas 16.7, North Dakota 34.9 | North Dakota 88%right winner | 17.8 | 36.4 |
| New formula | St. Thomas 18.8, North Dakota 35.5 | North Dakota 84%right winner | 19.3 | 33.7 |
Final: St. Thomas 26, North Dakota 62. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
St. Thomas vs North Dakota: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | St. Thomas | North Dakota |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.9 | 32.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.5 | 19.9 |
| Yards per play | 6.59 | 5.74 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.08 | 4.99 |
| Rushing yards per game | 184.9 | 200.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 247.6 | 189.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 167.9 | 121.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 234.4 | 207.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75 | 1.07 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.17 | 1.64 |
| Sacks per game | 2.83 | 2.86 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.75 | 1.14 |
| Stat | St. Thomas | North Dakota |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08 | +0.02 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03 | -0.13 |
| Success rate | 42.3% | 42.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.0% | 35.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 15.3% | 13.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.6% | 9.8% |
| Havoc rate | 16.7% | 15.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.0% | 11.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.66 | 3.01 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.17 | 2.25 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.7 | 68.0 |
| Stat | St. Thomas | North Dakota |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.16 | +0.02 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.11 | -0.10 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.19 | -0.15 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.1% | 44.5% |
| Passing success rate | 46.5% | 40.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 22.2% | 18.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.2% | 30.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.4% | 25.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.2% | 39.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.4% | 32.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 45.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 37.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: St. Thomas schedule · North Dakota schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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