Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected St. Thomas 35, San Diego 25.9 at O'Shaughnessy Stadium in Week 4. That is a solid edge: St. Thomas wins about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.1 points and 60.9 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
San Diego is 1-2, scoring 24 and allowing 47.7 points per game (-23.7 per game). St. Thomas is 3-1, scoring 31.3 and allowing 27.8 points per game (+3.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between San Diego by 13 and St. Thomas by 32 about 80% of the time.
St. Thomas gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour St. Thomas by about 7.
Result: San Diego 17, St. Thomas 50. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 23.9 points and the total by 6.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (San Diego / St. Thomas) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | St. Thomas -5.5 | 58.5 → 57.5 | +143 / -179 |
| DraftKings | St. Thomas -5.5 | 58.5 → 57.5 | +143 / -179 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | St. Thomas win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | St. Thomas -9 | 60.9 | 72% |
| Market consensus | St. Thomas -5.5 | 57.5 | 61% |
| Blended projection | St. Thomas -6 | 57.9 | 66% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- St. Thomas win probability
- model 72% · market (no-vig) 61% · difference +12 pts
- Margin
- model St. Thomas -9.1 · market St. Thomas -5.5 · difference +3.6 pts (St. Thomas view)
- Total
- model 60.9 · market 57.5 · difference +3.4
Model margin is 3.6 pts more toward St. Thomas than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | San Diego 25.9, St. Thomas 35.0 | St. Thomas 72%right winner | 23.9 | 6.1 |
| New formula | San Diego 26.1, St. Thomas 34.2 | St. Thomas 70%right winner | 24.9 | 6.7 |
Final: San Diego 17, St. Thomas 50. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
San Diego vs St. Thomas: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | San Diego | St. Thomas |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.4 | 30.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.3 | 20.5 |
| Yards per play | 5.54 | 6.59 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.56 | 6.08 |
| Rushing yards per game | 165.1 | 184.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 197.9 | 247.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 128.3 | 167.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 227.3 | 234.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.42 | 0.75 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25 | 1.17 |
| Sacks per game | 3.08 | 2.83 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.67 | 1.75 |
| Stat | San Diego | St. Thomas |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.08 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.00 | +0.03 |
| Success rate | 37.6% | 42.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.6% | 41.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.3% | 15.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9% | 13.6% |
| Havoc rate | 13.9% | 16.7% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.7% | 14.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 3.66 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 3.17 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.5 | 65.7 |
| Stat | San Diego | St. Thomas |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.10 | +0.16 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.09 | -0.11 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08 | +0.19 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.8% | 40.1% |
| Passing success rate | 39.2% | 46.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.8% | 22.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.4% | 34.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.5% | 31.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.0% | 41.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.9% | 39.4% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: San Diego schedule · St. Thomas schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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