Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected St. Thomas 28.8, Winona State 25.2 at O'Shaughnessy Stadium in Week 1. That is a lean: St. Thomas wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.6 points and 54 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Winona State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. St. Thomas has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Winona State by 19 and St. Thomas by 26 about 80% of the time.
St. Thomas gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour St. Thomas by about 1.5.
Result: Winona State 9, St. Thomas 15. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2.4 points and the total by 30.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Winona State 25.2, St. Thomas 28.8 | St. Thomas 59%right winner | 2.4 | 30.0 |
| New formula | Winona State 19.2, St. Thomas 36.0 | St. Thomas 84%right winner | 10.8 | 31.2 |
Final: Winona State 9, St. Thomas 15. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
More: Winona State schedule · St. Thomas schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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