Matchup analysis
Our model projects Indiana State 36, Murray State 22 at Memorial Stadium (Terre Haute, IN) in Week 11. That is a solid edge: Indiana State wins about 82% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.9 points and 58.7 combined points.
Murray State is 1-7 against the 1st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 14.8 and allowing 41.8 points per game (-27 per game). Indiana State is 2-6 against the 6th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25.5 and allowing 34.8 points per game (-9.3 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Murray State by 9 and Indiana State by 36 about 80% of the time.
Indiana State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Indiana State by about 11.8. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Murray State vs Indiana State: stat comparison
| Stat | Murray State | Indiana State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 14.8 | 25.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 41.8 | 34.8 |
| Yards per play | 4.86 | 6.39 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.32 | 6.06 |
| Rushing yards per game | 124.5 | 125.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 158.6 | 274.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 226.1 | 156.0 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 190.4 | 279.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.13 | 1.38 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50 | 0.63 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50 | 2.13 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.38 | 2.38 |
| Stat | Murray State | Indiana State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.05 | +0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.14 | +0.18 |
| Success rate | 37.8% | 37.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 48.8% | 44.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.5% | 15.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.3% | 13.5% |
| Havoc rate | 11.8% | 13.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.3% | 20.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 1.09 | 0.90 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.46 | 1.20 |
| Average starting field position | opp 18 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 15 | opp 7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 58.3 | 62.5 |
| Stat | Murray State | Indiana State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.03 | +0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.08 | +0.03 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.13 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.16 | +0.29 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.7% | 35.6% |
| Passing success rate | 36.0% | 37.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.7% | 26.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.0% | 28.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.6% | 37.8% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.5% | 41.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.7% | 44.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 18.4% | 13.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 32.4% | 19.7% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Murray State schedule · Indiana State schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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