Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Eastern Illinois 27.7, Indiana State 24.2 at O'Brien Field in Week 2. That is a lean: Eastern Illinois wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.5 points and 51.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Indiana State is 0-2, scoring 20 and allowing 33.5 points per game (-13.5 per game). Eastern Illinois is 1-1, scoring 17.5 and allowing 36.5 points per game (-19 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Indiana State by 19 and Eastern Illinois by 26 about 80% of the time.
Eastern Illinois gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Eastern Illinois by about 1.4. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Indiana State 42, Eastern Illinois 35. Indiana State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 10.5 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Indiana State / Eastern Illinois) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Indiana State -1.5 → Indiana State -3 | 49.5 | -154 / +124 |
| DraftKings | Indiana State -1.5 → Indiana State -3 | 49.5 | -154 / +124 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Eastern Illinois win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Eastern Illinois -3.5 | 51.8 | 59% |
| Market consensus | Indiana State -3 | 49.5 | 42% |
| Blended projection | Indiana State -2 | 50.5 | 45% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Eastern Illinois win probability
- model 59% · market (no-vig) 42% · difference +17 pts
- Margin
- model Eastern Illinois -3.5 · market Indiana State -3 · difference +6.5 pts (Eastern Illinois view)
- Total
- model 51.8 · market 49.5 · difference +2.3
Model margin is 6.5 pts more toward Eastern Illinois than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Indiana State 24.2, Eastern Illinois 27.7 | Eastern Illinois 59%wrong winner | 10.5 | 25.2 |
| New formula | Indiana State 25.1, Eastern Illinois 29.4 | Eastern Illinois 61%wrong winner | 11.2 | 22.5 |
Final: Indiana State 42, Eastern Illinois 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Indiana State vs Eastern Illinois: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Indiana State | Eastern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.2 | 17.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 39.6 | 29.2 |
| Yards per play | 5.51 | 5.13 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.66 | 6.14 |
| Rushing yards per game | 146.6 | 156.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 178.6 | 166.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 262.6 | 156.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 255.4 | 237.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.45 | 1.36 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.91 | 1.36 |
| Sacks per game | 1.55 | 1.09 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.73 | 2.82 |
| Stat | Indiana State | Eastern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.12 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.14 | +0.02 |
| Success rate | 34.6% | 38.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 50.8% | 46.4% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.5% | 12.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.1% | 13.8% |
| Havoc rate | 11.5% | 12.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 18.1% | 17.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 3.38 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.78 | 3.81 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 6 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.0 | 63.0 |
| Stat | Indiana State | Eastern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.15 | -0.07 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.13 | +0.10 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.3% | 40.3% |
| Passing success rate | 33.0% | 36.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 24.6% | 22.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.5% | 29.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 38.7% | 32.8% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 29.4% | 35.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 52.6% | 45.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 51.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 13.1% | 59.7% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Indiana State schedule · Eastern Illinois schedule · all Week 2 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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