Matchup analysis
Our model projects Northern Iowa 30, Indiana State 23 at UNI-Dome in Week 9. That is a solid edge: Northern Iowa wins about 69% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.5 points and 53 combined points.
Indiana State is 2-6 against the 6th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25.5 and allowing 34.8 points per game (-9.3 per game). Northern Iowa is 3-4 against the 8th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.4 and allowing 28 points per game (-3.6 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Indiana State by 15 and Northern Iowa by 30 about 80% of the time.
Northern Iowa gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Northern Iowa by about 5.4. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Indiana State vs Northern Iowa: stat comparison
| Stat | Indiana State | Northern Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.5 | 24.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 34.8 | 28.0 |
| Yards per play | 6.39 | 5.16 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.06 | 5.99 |
| Rushing yards per game | 125.4 | 123.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 274.3 | 199.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 156.0 | 195.7 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 279.1 | 220.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.38 | 0.71 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.63 | 1.14 |
| Sacks per game | 2.13 | 1.57 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.38 | 3.00 |
| Stat | Indiana State | Northern Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03 | +0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.18 | +0.08 |
| Success rate | 37.1% | 40.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.5% | 47.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 15.6% | 12.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.5% | 12.9% |
| Havoc rate | 13.5% | 12.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 20.1% | 13.2% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.90 | 0.96 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 1.20 | 2.04 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 14 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 7 | opp 12 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.5 | 62.7 |
| Stat | Indiana State | Northern Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.02 | -0.07 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03 | +0.12 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04 | +0.18 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.29 | +0.00 |
| Rushing success rate | 35.6% | 41.7% |
| Passing success rate | 37.5% | 39.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 26.3% | 21.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.9% | 29.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 37.8% | 32.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.4% | 36.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.6% | 48.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 13.4% | 14.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 19.7% | 29.4% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Indiana State schedule · Northern Iowa schedule · all Week 9 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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