Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Southeast Missouri State 28.1, Western Illinois 25.9 at Houck Field in Week 7. That is a genuine toss-up: Southeast Missouri State wins about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.2 points and 53.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Western Illinois is 3-3, scoring 31.8 and allowing 22.8 points per game (+9 per game). Southeast Missouri State is 3-3, scoring 22.5 and allowing 24.8 points per game (-2.3 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Western Illinois by 20 and Southeast Missouri State by 25 about 80% of the time.
Southeast Missouri State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Southeast Missouri State by about 0.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Western Illinois 30, Southeast Missouri State 40. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 7.8 points and the total by 16.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Western Illinois / Southeast Missouri State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Southeast Missouri State -6 | 55.5 → 52.5 | +173 / -219 |
| DraftKings | Southeast Missouri State -6 | 55.5 → 52.5 | +173 / -219 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Southeast Missouri State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Southeast Missouri State -2 | 53.9 | 56% |
| Market consensus | Southeast Missouri State -6 | 52.5 | 65% |
| Blended projection | Southeast Missouri State -5.5 | 53.2 | 64% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Southeast Missouri State win probability
- model 56% · market (no-vig) 65% · difference -10 pts
- Margin
- model Southeast Missouri State -2.2 · market Southeast Missouri State -6 · difference -3.8 pts (Southeast Missouri State view)
- Total
- model 53.9 · market 52.5 · difference +1.4
Model margin is 3.8 pts more toward Western Illinois than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Western Illinois 25.9, Southeast Missouri State 28.1 | Southeast Missouri State 56%right winner | 7.8 | 16.1 |
| New formula | Western Illinois 26.6, Southeast Missouri State 27.2 | Southeast Missouri State 52%right winner | 9.4 | 16.2 |
Final: Western Illinois 30, Southeast Missouri State 40. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Western Illinois vs Southeast Missouri State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Western Illinois | Southeast Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.1 | 23.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 34.8 | 30.1 |
| Yards per play | 5.24 | 5.26 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.85 | 6.37 |
| Rushing yards per game | 125.7 | 128.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 224.8 | 268.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 212.3 | 200.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 242.0 | 267.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.82 | 1.33 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.91 | 1.17 |
| Sacks per game | 2.36 | 2.33 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.45 | 4.00 |
| Stat | Western Illinois | Southeast Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11 | +0.00 |
| Success rate | 37.7% | 36.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.3% | 39.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.3% | 9.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.2% | 14.9% |
| Havoc rate | 10.8% | 13.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.4% | 15.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.40 | 3.83 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.08 | 4.21 |
| Average starting field position | opp 12 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 10 | opp 4 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.9 | 75.6 |
| Stat | Western Illinois | Southeast Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.10 | -0.03 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12 | +0.05 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.1% | 35.0% |
| Passing success rate | 35.3% | 38.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.4% | 23.0% |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.1% | 28.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.0% | 30.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.2% | 40.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.4% | 37.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 56.3% | 63.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6% | 69.2% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Western Illinois schedule · Southeast Missouri State schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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