Matchup analysis
Our model projects Southeast Missouri State 24, Gardner-Webb 23 at Houck Field in Week 9. That is a genuine toss-up: Southeast Missouri State wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.3 points and 46.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans low scoring.
Gardner-Webb is 2-6 against the 56th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 19.6 and allowing 22.5 points per game (-2.9 per game). Southeast Missouri State is 5-3 against the 71st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.4 and allowing 23.6 points per game (+0.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Gardner-Webb by 21 and Southeast Missouri State by 24 about 80% of the time.
Southeast Missouri State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Gardner-Webb would be favoured by 0.8. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Gardner-Webb vs Southeast Missouri State: stat comparison
| Stat | Gardner-Webb | Southeast Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.6 | 24.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.5 | 23.6 |
| Yards per play | 5.20 | 5.25 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.48 | 5.93 |
| Rushing yards per game | 108.6 | 157.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 250.5 | 210.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 169.8 | 137.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 164.3 | 219.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.63 | 1.63 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.13 | 1.13 |
| Sacks per game | 2.75 | 1.38 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.38 | 1.63 |
| Stat | Gardner-Webb | Southeast Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.07 | -0.01 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.12 | +0.01 |
| Success rate | 37.1% | 39.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 35.6% | 36.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.6% | 10.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.0% | 14.5% |
| Havoc rate | 17.2% | 17.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.0% | 15.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.99 | 3.37 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.24 | 4.48 |
| Average starting field position | opp 17 | opp 9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 17 | opp 8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.0 | 70.1 |
| Stat | Gardner-Webb | Southeast Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.09 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.05 | +0.01 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.12 | +0.02 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.10 | -0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 32.6% | 36.4% |
| Passing success rate | 36.2% | 39.9% |
| Run stuff rate | 24.6% | 20.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.5% | 27.7% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.7% | 31.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 32.5% | 41.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 27.4% | 36.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 42.8% | 64.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.4% | 63.0% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Gardner-Webb schedule · Southeast Missouri State schedule · all Week 9 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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