Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Iowa State 45.4, Southeast Missouri State 6.6 at Jack Trice Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Iowa State wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 38.7 points and 52 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Southeast Missouri State is 1-0, scoring 23 and allowing 21 points per game (+2 per game). Iowa State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Southeast Missouri State plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Iowa State's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Iowa State by 16 and Iowa State by 61 about 80% of the time.
Iowa State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Iowa State by about 36.6. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Southeast Missouri State 10, Iowa State 38. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 10.7 points and the total by 4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Southeast Missouri State / Iowa State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Iowa State -29.5 | 53.5 → 52.5 | +2500 / -9000 |
| DraftKings | Iowa State -29.5 | 53.5 → 52.5 | +2500 / -9000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Iowa State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Iowa State -38.5 | 52.0 | 99% |
| Market consensus | Iowa State -29.5 | 52.5 | 96% |
| Blended projection | Iowa State -31 | 53.1 | 98% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Iowa State win probability
- model 99% · market (no-vig) 96% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model Iowa State -38.7 · market Iowa State -29.5 · difference +9.2 pts (Iowa State view)
- Total
- model 52.0 · market 52.5 · difference -0.5
Model margin is 9.2 pts more toward Iowa State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Southeast Missouri State 6.6, Iowa State 45.4 | Iowa State 99%right winner | 10.7 | 4.0 |
| New formula | Southeast Missouri State 8.8, Iowa State 43.1 | Iowa State 98%right winner | 6.4 | 3.9 |
Final: Southeast Missouri State 10, Iowa State 38. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Southeast Missouri State vs Iowa State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Southeast Missouri State | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.2 | 27.4#70 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.1 | 20.2#27 |
| Yards per play | 5.26 | 5.87#68 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.37 | 5.64#53 |
| Rushing yards per game | 128.8 | 184.5#47 |
| Net passing yards per game | 268.8 | 214.8#83 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 200.2 | 137.3#28 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 267.6 | 216.8#66 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.33 | 1.00#66 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.17 | 1.25#41 |
| Sacks per game | 2.33 | 1.08#128 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 4.00 | 1.67#55 |
| Stat | Southeast Missouri State | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.02#80 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.00 | -0.02#50 |
| Success rate | 36.4% | 44.9%#44 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.3% | 39.4%#42 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.5% | 12.9%#55 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.9% | 12.4%#68 |
| Havoc rate | 13.5% | 13.5%#44 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.3% | 12.2%#77 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.83 | 3.85#82 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.21 | 3.63#43 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | own 30#45 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 4 | own 27#20 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 75.6 | 68.0#46 |
| Stat | Southeast Missouri State | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.10 | +0.02#71 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.03 | +0.01#78 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04 | -0.03#42 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05 | -0.01#65 |
| Rushing success rate | 35.0% | 45.8%#43 |
| Passing success rate | 38.5% | 43.8%#39 |
| Run stuff rate | 23.0% | 17.6%#55 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.4% | 30.9%#65 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.3% | 28.7%#56 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.1% | 42.1%#55 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.8% | 40.0%#60 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 63.8% | 61.5%#66 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 69.2% | 55.6%#37 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Southeast Missouri State schedule · Iowa State schedule · all Week 1 projections
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