Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Southeast Missouri State 27.8, West Florida 22.9 at Houck Field in Week 4. That is a lean: Southeast Missouri State wins about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.9 points and 50.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
West Florida is 2-1, scoring 30.7 and allowing 27.7 points per game (+3 per game). Southeast Missouri State is 2-2, scoring 20 and allowing 25.5 points per game (-5.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between West Florida by 18 and Southeast Missouri State by 27 about 80% of the time.
Southeast Missouri State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Southeast Missouri State by about 2.8. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: West Florida 20, Southeast Missouri State 17. West Florida won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 7.9 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (West Florida / Southeast Missouri State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Southeast Missouri State -6.5 → Southeast Missouri State -6 | 52.5 | +137 / -171 |
| DraftKings | Southeast Missouri State -6.5 → Southeast Missouri State -6 | 52.5 | +137 / -171 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Southeast Missouri State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Southeast Missouri State -5 | 50.7 | 63% |
| Market consensus | Southeast Missouri State -6 | 52.5 | 60% |
| Blended projection | Southeast Missouri State -6 | 53.0 | 65% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Southeast Missouri State win probability
- model 63% · market (no-vig) 60% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model Southeast Missouri State -4.9 · market Southeast Missouri State -6 · difference -1.1 pts (Southeast Missouri State view)
- Total
- model 50.7 · market 52.5 · difference -1.8
Model margin is 1.1 pts more toward West Florida than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | West Florida 22.9, Southeast Missouri State 27.8 | Southeast Missouri State 63%wrong winner | 7.9 | 13.7 |
| New formula | West Florida 23.3, Southeast Missouri State 27.4 | Southeast Missouri State 61%wrong winner | 7.1 | 13.7 |
Final: West Florida 20, Southeast Missouri State 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
More: West Florida schedule · Southeast Missouri State schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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