Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Stony Brook 30.4, Lindenwood 25.4 at Kenneth P. LaValle Stadium in Week 1. That is a lean: Stony Brook wins about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5 points and 55.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Lindenwood is 1-0, scoring 20 and allowing 17 points per game (+3 per game). Stony Brook is 0-1, scoring 34 and allowing 41 points per game (-7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Lindenwood by 18 and Stony Brook by 28 about 80% of the time.
Stony Brook gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Stony Brook by about 2.9.
Result: Lindenwood 32, Stony Brook 36. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1 points and the total by 12.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Lindenwood / Stony Brook) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Stony Brook -4 | 50.5 | +150 / -189 |
| DraftKings | Stony Brook -4 | 50.5 | +150 / -189 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Stony Brook win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Stony Brook -5 | 55.8 | 63% |
| Market consensus | Stony Brook -4 | 50.5 | 62% |
| Blended projection | Stony Brook -4 | 51.6 | 61% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Stony Brook win probability
- model 63% · market (no-vig) 62% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model Stony Brook -5 · market Stony Brook -4 · difference +1.0 pts (Stony Brook view)
- Total
- model 55.8 · market 50.5 · difference +5.3
Model margin is 1.0 pts more toward Stony Brook than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Lindenwood 25.4, Stony Brook 30.4 | Stony Brook 63%right winner | 1.0 | 12.2 |
| New formula | Lindenwood 22.1, Stony Brook 33.3 | Stony Brook 75%right winner | 7.2 | 12.6 |
Final: Lindenwood 32, Stony Brook 36. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Lindenwood vs Stony Brook: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Lindenwood | Stony Brook |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.8 | 28.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.0 | 25.8 |
| Yards per play | 5.96 | 5.07 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.75 | 5.50 |
| Rushing yards per game | 148.5 | 178.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 224.6 | 228.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 185.1 | 156.7 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 191.9 | 230.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.08 | 1.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00 | 2.75 |
| Stat | Lindenwood | Stony Brook |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09 | -0.00 |
| Success rate | 40.1% | 40.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.3% | 39.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.6% | 9.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.4% | 12.9% |
| Havoc rate | 11.0% | 13.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.6% | 12.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.16 | 3.42 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.70 | 4.26 |
| Average starting field position | opp 14 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 13 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.6 | 80.3 |
| Stat | Lindenwood | Stony Brook |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.08 | +0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.06 | -0.13 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08 | -0.08 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12 | +0.07 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.3% | 44.0% |
| Passing success rate | 43.9% | 39.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 23.3% | 14.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.3% | 25.7% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.1% | 33.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.8% | 41.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.0% | 34.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 69.5% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 43.6% | 67.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Lindenwood schedule · Stony Brook schedule · all Week 1 projections
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