2026 schedule
Stony Brook Seawolves
2026 season so far
Stony Brook is 5-3 against the 137th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.9 and allowing 30.4 points per game (+2.5 per game).
Stony Brook plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs Sacred Heart in Week 9. We project Stony Brook 32, Sacred Heart 23 — Stony Brook wins 72% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- at
Delaware State Hornets
1-0 · SOS #124
Loss 34-41
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Delaware State by 3.6
Total 55.8
DraftKings
STBK -4.5
Total 50.5
Final Delaware State by 7. Delaware State beat the spread. 75 points — over the 50.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Stony Brook -4.5 · O/U 50.5 · model vs market +8.1 pts (Delaware State view)
Alumni Stadium (DE)Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hit - vs
Lindenwood Lions
1-1 · SOS #98
Win 36-32
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Stony Brook by 5
Total 55.8
DraftKings
STBK -4
Total 50.5
Final Stony Brook by 4. The spread landed exactly on the number. 68 points — over the 50.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Stony Brook -4 · O/U 50.5 · ML +150 / -189 · Stony Brook 62% no-vig · model vs market +1.0 pts, +1 pct pts (Stony Brook view)
Kenneth P. LaValle StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed - at
Ball State Cardinals
1-1 · SOS #85
Loss 17-41
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Ball State by 24
Total 55.2
DraftKings
BALL -13.5
Total 52.5
Final Ball State by 24. Ball State beat the spread. 58 points — over the 52.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Ball State -13.5 (open Ball State -14.25) · O/U 52.75 (open 56) · ML +427.5 / -600 · Ball State 82% no-vig · model vs market +10.5 pts, +12 pct pts (Ball State view)
ESPN+ Scheumann StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit - vs
Rhode Island Rams
2-2 · SOS #88
Win 56-24
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Rhode Island by 8.9
Total 58.3
DraftKings
URI -9.5
Total 51.5
Final Stony Brook by 32. Stony Brook beat the spread. 80 points — over the 51.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Rhode Island -9.5 (open Rhode Island -13.5) · O/U 51.5 (open 52.5) · ML -346 / +260 · Stony Brook 26% no-vig · model vs market +0.6 pts, +2 pct pts (Stony Brook view)
Kenneth P. LaValle Stadium - at
Fordham Rams
1-4 · SOS #48
Win 31-16
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Stony Brook by 4.2
Total 57.8
DraftKings
STBK -9.5
Total 50.5
Final Stony Brook by 15. Stony Brook beat the spread. 47 points — under the 50.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Stony Brook -9.5 (open Stony Brook -10) · O/U 50.5 (open 56.5) · ML -329 / +249 · Fordham 27% no-vig · model vs market +5.3 pts, +12 pct pts (Fordham view)
Game-time weather: Light rain, 61°F, Wind 21 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLGA)ESPN+ Moglia Stadium at Jack Coffey FieldPregame calls · how each did
- at
Towson Tigers
0-7 · SOS #37
Win 31-24
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Stony Brook by 3.5
Total 61.1
DraftKings
STBK -3.5
Total 58.5
Final Stony Brook by 7. Stony Brook beat the spread. 55 points — under the 58.5. Our number and the book's were equally close. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Stony Brook -3.5 (open Stony Brook -7) · O/U 58.5 (open 57.5) · ML -160 / +128 · Towson 42% no-vig · model vs market 0.0 pts, -1 pct pts (Towson view)
Game-time weather: 71°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDMH)Johnny Unitas StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesBlowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games - vs
UAlbany Great Danes
4-3 · SOS #106
Loss 31-48
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Stony Brook by 7.1
Total 50.5
DraftKings
STBK -6
Total 46.5
Final UAlbany by 17. UAlbany beat the spread. 79 points — over the 46.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Stony Brook -6 · O/U 46.5 · ML +158 / -200 · Stony Brook 63% no-vig · model vs market +1.1 pts, +5 pct pts (Stony Brook view)
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 52°F, Wind 17 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KISP)Kenneth P. LaValle Stadium - at
Bryant Bulldogs
5-3 · SOS #132
Win 27-17
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Stony Brook by 5
Total 56.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Stony Brook by 10. 44 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 63°F, Wind 5 mph WNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSFZ)Beirne StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed - vs
Sacred Heart Pioneers
3-4 · SOS #149
Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 32-23 · 72%
Our number
Stony Brook by 9
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Sunny, 54°F, Wind 9 mph N, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTKenneth P. LaValle Stadium - at
Campbell Fighting Camels
7-1 · SOS #109
Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 29-31 · 43%
Our number
Campbell by 2
Total 60
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Barker-Lane StadiumExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games - at
New Hampshire Wildcats
2-7 · SOS #77
Sat, Nov 14, 6:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 34-22 · 77%
Our number
Stony Brook by 12
Total 56
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Wildcat Stadium (NH) - vs
Hampton Pirates
1-7 · SOS #141
Sat, Nov 21, 5:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 41-17 · 94%
Our number
Stony Brook by 24
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kenneth P. LaValle StadiumExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded games
Times shown in your local time
Stony Brook Seawolves stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-19.7
Adj. offense
18.9
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
38.6
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 32.9 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 30.4 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.01 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.24 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 165.5 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 251.6 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 199.6 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 216.0 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.63 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.75 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 3.50 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.38 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.10 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.12 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 39.4% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 41.9% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 11.6% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 16.1% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 14.4% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 14.2% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.61 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.75 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 9 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 9 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 69.4 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.03 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.16 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.11 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.11 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 40.0% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 42.9% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 19.8% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 29.6% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 31.0% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 42.0% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 39.8% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 61.7% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 37.1% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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