Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Stony Brook 31, Fordham 26.8 at Moglia Stadium at Jack Coffey Field in Week 4. That is a lean: Stony Brook wins about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.2 points and 57.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Stony Brook is 2-2, scoring 35.8 and allowing 34.5 points per game (+1.3 per game). Fordham is 1-3, scoring 18.3 and allowing 33.5 points per game (-15.2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Stony Brook by 27 and Fordham by 18 about 80% of the time.
Fordham gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Stony Brook is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Stony Brook 31, Fordham 16. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 10.8 points and the total by 10.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Stony Brook / Fordham) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Stony Brook -10 → Stony Brook -9.5 | 56.5 → 50.5 | -329 / +249 |
| DraftKings | Stony Brook -10 → Stony Brook -9.5 | 56.5 → 50.5 | -329 / +249 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Fordham win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Stony Brook -4 | 57.7 | 39% |
| Market consensus | Stony Brook -9.5 | 50.5 | 27% |
| Blended projection | Stony Brook -8.5 | 51.7 | 28% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Fordham win probability
- model 39% · market (no-vig) 27% · difference +12 pts
- Margin
- model Stony Brook -4.2 · market Stony Brook -9.5 · difference +5.3 pts (Fordham view)
- Total
- model 57.7 · market 50.5 · difference +7.2
Model margin is 5.3 pts more toward Fordham than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Stony Brook 31.0, Fordham 26.8 | Stony Brook 61%right winner | 10.8 | 10.7 |
| New formula | Stony Brook 31.5, Fordham 26.6 | Stony Brook 63%right winner | 10.1 | 11.1 |
Final: Stony Brook 31, Fordham 16. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Stony Brook vs Fordham: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Stony Brook | Fordham |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.0 | 15.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.8 | 33.1 |
| Yards per play | 5.07 | 4.85 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.50 | 5.72 |
| Rushing yards per game | 178.0 | 112.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 228.8 | 242.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 156.7 | 146.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 230.8 | 289.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 0.58 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.75 | 4.33 |
| Stat | Stony Brook | Fordham |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.15 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.00 | +0.01 |
| Success rate | 40.3% | 35.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.0% | 41.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.6% | 10.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9% | 11.2% |
| Havoc rate | 13.5% | 11.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.0% | 17.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.42 | 2.78 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.26 | 4.74 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 80.3 | 73.2 |
| Stat | Stony Brook | Fordham |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.02 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.13 | -0.24 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.08 | -0.17 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07 | +0.19 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.0% | 39.8% |
| Passing success rate | 39.0% | 33.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 14.8% | 20.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.7% | 24.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.0% | 29.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.8% | 35.6% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.6% | 39.7% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 49.9% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 67.1% | 69.3% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Stony Brook schedule · Fordham schedule · all Week 4 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.