Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Stony Brook 32.3, Towson 28.8 at Johnny Unitas Stadium in Week 6. That is a lean: Stony Brook wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.5 points and 61 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans high scoring.
Stony Brook is 3-2, scoring 34.8 and allowing 30.8 points per game (+4 per game). Towson is 0-6, scoring 22.7 and allowing 37.2 points per game (-14.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Stony Brook by 26 and Towson by 19 about 80% of the time.
Towson gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Stony Brook is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Result: Stony Brook 31, Towson 24. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.5 points and the total by 6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Stony Brook / Towson) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Stony Brook -7 → Stony Brook -3.5 | 57.5 → 58.5 | -160 / +128 |
| DraftKings | Stony Brook -7 → Stony Brook -3.5 | 57.5 → 58.5 | -160 / +128 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Towson win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Stony Brook -3.5 | 61.0 | 41% |
| Market consensus | Stony Brook -3.5 | 58.5 | 42% |
| Blended projection | Stony Brook -3.5 | 58.8 | 41% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Towson win probability
- model 41% · market (no-vig) 42% · difference -1 pts
- Margin
- model Stony Brook -3.5 · market Stony Brook -3.5 · difference 0.0 pts (Towson view)
- Total
- model 61.0 · market 58.5 · difference +2.5
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Stony Brook 32.3, Towson 28.8 | Stony Brook 59%right winner | 3.5 | 6.0 |
| New formula | Stony Brook 33.4, Towson 26.7 | Stony Brook 67%right winner | 0.2 | 5.1 |
Final: Stony Brook 31, Towson 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Stony Brook vs Towson: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Stony Brook | Towson |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.0 | 26.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.8 | 25.1 |
| Yards per play | 5.07 | 6.01 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.50 | 5.67 |
| Rushing yards per game | 178.0 | 110.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 228.8 | 237.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 156.7 | 179.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 230.8 | 222.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 0.91 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 0.82 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 1.27 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.75 | 1.45 |
| Stat | Stony Brook | Towson |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.05 | +0.00 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.00 | +0.09 |
| Success rate | 40.3% | 40.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.0% | 46.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.6% | 10.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9% | 12.6% |
| Havoc rate | 13.5% | 8.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.0% | 9.7% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.42 | 2.94 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.26 | 4.05 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 8 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 80.3 | 57.9 |
| Stat | Stony Brook | Towson |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.02 | -0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.13 | +0.07 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.08 | +0.06 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07 | +0.12 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.0% | 42.3% |
| Passing success rate | 39.0% | 40.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 14.8% | 17.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.7% | 29.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.0% | 39.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.8% | 41.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.6% | 45.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 37.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 67.1% | 61.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Stony Brook schedule · Towson schedule · all Week 6 projections
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