Matchup analysis
Our model projects Stony Brook 41, Hampton 17 at Kenneth P. LaValle Stadium in Week 12. That is a heavy edge: Stony Brook wins about 94% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 24.3 points and 57.7 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Hampton is 1-7 against the 104th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 17 and allowing 36.3 points per game (-19.3 per game). Stony Brook is 5-3 against the 98th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.9 and allowing 30.4 points per game (+2.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Stony Brook by 2 and Stony Brook by 47 about 80% of the time.
Stony Brook gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Stony Brook by about 22.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Hampton vs Stony Brook: stat comparison
| Stat | Hampton | Stony Brook |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 17.0 | 32.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 36.3 | 30.4 |
| Yards per play | 5.24 | 6.01 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.19 | 6.24 |
| Rushing yards per game | 127.0 | 165.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 186.4 | 251.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 203.3 | 199.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 241.8 | 216.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.13 | 0.63 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.25 | 0.75 |
| Sacks per game | 0.63 | 3.50 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.25 | 1.38 |
| Stat | Hampton | Stony Brook |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.11 | +0.10 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.12 | +0.12 |
| Success rate | 36.1% | 39.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 48.3% | 41.9% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.9% | 11.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.0% | 16.1% |
| Havoc rate | 11.4% | 14.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 16.9% | 14.2% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.47 | 3.61 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.90 | 3.75 |
| Average starting field position | opp 11 | opp 9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 8 | opp 9 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.8 | 69.4 |
| Stat | Hampton | Stony Brook |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.16 | +0.16 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07 | +0.11 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.19 | +0.11 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.8% | 40.0% |
| Passing success rate | 34.4% | 42.9% |
| Run stuff rate | 23.0% | 19.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.9% | 29.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.6% | 31.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.7% | 42.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.4% | 39.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 51.5% | 61.7% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.0% | 37.1% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Hampton schedule · Stony Brook schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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