Matchup analysis
Our model projects Campbell 31, Stony Brook 29 at Barker-Lane Stadium in Week 10. That is a genuine toss-up: Campbell wins about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.7 points and 59.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Stony Brook is 5-3 against the 98th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.9 and allowing 30.4 points per game (+2.5 per game). Campbell is 7-1 against the 86th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.9 and allowing 24.9 points per game (+8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Stony Brook by 20 and Campbell by 25 about 80% of the time.
Campbell gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Campbell by about 0.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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Stony Brook vs Campbell: stat comparison
| Stat | Stony Brook | Campbell |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.9 | 32.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.4 | 24.9 |
| Yards per play | 6.01 | 7.01 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.24 | 5.86 |
| Rushing yards per game | 165.5 | 175.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 251.6 | 311.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 199.6 | 120.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 216.0 | 269.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.63 | 1.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75 | 1.13 |
| Sacks per game | 3.50 | 1.88 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.38 | 1.13 |
| Stat | Stony Brook | Campbell |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.10 | +0.15 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.12 | +0.09 |
| Success rate | 39.4% | 45.7% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.9% | 42.9% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.6% | 15.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.1% | 12.9% |
| Havoc rate | 14.4% | 14.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.2% | 12.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.61 | 3.06 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.75 | 3.33 |
| Average starting field position | opp 9 | opp 9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 9 | opp 8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.4 | 69.5 |
| Stat | Stony Brook | Campbell |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.03 | +0.14 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.16 | +0.17 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.11 | +0.02 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.11 | +0.13 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.0% | 47.8% |
| Passing success rate | 42.9% | 48.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.8% | 19.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.6% | 32.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.0% | 27.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.0% | 41.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.8% | 34.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 61.7% | 38.9% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 37.1% | 44.9% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Stony Brook schedule · Campbell schedule · all Week 10 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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