Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Delaware State 29.7, Stony Brook 26.1 at Alumni Stadium (DE) in Week 1. That is a lean: Delaware State wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.6 points and 55.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Stony Brook has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Delaware State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Stony Brook by 19 and Delaware State by 26 about 80% of the time.
Delaware State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Delaware State by about 1.5.
Result: Stony Brook 34, Delaware State 41. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.4 points and the total by 19.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Stony Brook / Delaware State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Stony Brook -4.5 | 50.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Stony Brook -4.5 | 50.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Delaware State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Delaware State -3.5 | 55.8 | 59% |
| Market consensus | Stony Brook -4.5 | 50.5 | 38% |
| Blended projection | Stony Brook -3 | 51.6 | 41% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Delaware State win probability
- model 59% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Delaware State -3.6 · market Stony Brook -4.5 · difference +8.1 pts (Delaware State view)
- Total
- model 55.8 · market 50.5 · difference +5.3
Model margin is 8.1 pts more toward Delaware State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Stony Brook 26.1, Delaware State 29.7 | Delaware State 59%right winner | 3.4 | 19.2 |
| New formula | Stony Brook 25.9, Delaware State 29.4 | Delaware State 58%right winner | 3.4 | 19.7 |
Final: Stony Brook 34, Delaware State 41. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Stony Brook vs Delaware State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Stony Brook | Delaware State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.0 | 32.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.8 | 24.8 |
| Yards per play | 5.07 | 7.06 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.50 | 6.48 |
| Rushing yards per game | 178.0 | 306.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 228.8 | 163.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 156.7 | 151.7 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 230.8 | 293.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.08 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 2.25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.75 | 1.67 |
| Stat | Stony Brook | Delaware State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.05 | +0.08 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.00 | +0.09 |
| Success rate | 40.3% | 41.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.0% | 44.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.6% | 15.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9% | 14.8% |
| Havoc rate | 13.5% | 12.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.0% | 15.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.42 | 3.32 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.26 | 3.75 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 80.3 | 66.5 |
| Stat | Stony Brook | Delaware State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.02 | +0.22 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.13 | -0.14 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.08 | +0.00 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07 | +0.17 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.0% | 43.6% |
| Passing success rate | 39.0% | 39.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 14.8% | 23.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.7% | 32.0% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.0% | 33.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.8% | 34.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.6% | 38.5% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 49.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 67.1% | 61.8% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Stony Brook schedule · Delaware State schedule · all Week 1 projections
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