Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Ball State 39.6, Stony Brook 15.6 at Scheumann Stadium in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: Ball State wins about 94% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 24 points and 55.1 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Stony Brook is 1-1, scoring 35 and allowing 36.5 points per game (-1.5 per game). Ball State is 0-1, scoring 3 and allowing 56 points per game (-53 per game).
Stony Brook plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Ball State's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ball State by 1 and Ball State by 47 about 80% of the time.
Ball State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Ball State by about 21.9. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Stony Brook 17, Ball State 41. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0 points and the total by 2.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Stony Brook / Ball State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Ball State -14.25 → Ball State -13.5 | 56 → 52.75 | +427.5 / -600 |
| Bovada | Ball State -14 → Ball State -13.5 | 54.5 → 53 | +430 / -625 |
| DraftKings | Ball State -14.5 → Ball State -13.5 | 57.5 → 52.5 | +425 / -575 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Ball State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Ball State -24 | 55.1 | 94% |
| Market consensus | Ball State -13.5 | 52.8 | 82% |
| Blended projection | Ball State -15.5 | 53.5 | 85% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Ball State win probability
- model 94% · market (no-vig) 82% · difference +12 pts
- Margin
- model Ball State -24 · market Ball State -13.5 · difference +10.5 pts (Ball State view)
- Total
- model 55.1 · market 52.75 · difference +2.4
Model margin is 10.5 pts more toward Ball State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Stony Brook 15.6, Ball State 39.6 | Ball State 94%right winner | 0.0 | 2.9 |
| New formula | Stony Brook 24.0, Ball State 35.0 | Ball State 75%right winner | 13.0 | 0.9 |
Final: Stony Brook 17, Ball State 41. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Stony Brook vs Ball State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Stony Brook | Ball State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.0 | 15.8#132 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.8 | 29.8#103 |
| Yards per play | 5.07 | 4.60#135 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.50 | 6.21#108 |
| Rushing yards per game | 178.0 | 152.4#86 |
| Net passing yards per game | 228.8 | 123.1#132 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 156.7 | 187.5#105 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 230.8 | 222.3#76 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.08#86 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 0.83#105 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 1.75#94 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.75 | 4.08#135 |
| Stat | Stony Brook | Ball State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.14#133 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.00 | +0.03#82 |
| Success rate | 40.3% | 33.8%#136 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.0% | 44.3%#102 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.6% | 11.0%#115 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9% | 12.9%#87 |
| Havoc rate | 13.5% | 11.6%#98 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.0% | 16.7%#135 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.42 | 3.12#128 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.26 | 3.88#71 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | own 28#119 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | own 32#120 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 80.3 | 59.8#129 |
| Stat | Stony Brook | Ball State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.02 | -0.07#116 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.13 | -0.22#134 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.08 | +0.03#87 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07 | +0.03#79 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.0% | 34.3%#133 |
| Passing success rate | 39.0% | 30.3%#135 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.8% | 21.3%#115 |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.7% | 21.8%#134 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.0% | 32.7%#108 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.8% | 33.9%#127 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.6% | 43.0%#100 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 45.8%#131 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 67.1% | 62.6%#87 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Stony Brook schedule · Ball State schedule · all Week 2 projections
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