Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Rhode Island 33.6, Stony Brook 24.7 at Kenneth P. LaValle Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: Rhode Island wins about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.9 points and 58.2 combined points.
Rhode Island is 2-1, scoring 26.3 and allowing 18.3 points per game (+8 per game). Stony Brook is 1-2, scoring 29 and allowing 38 points per game (-9 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Rhode Island by 31 and Stony Brook by 14 about 80% of the time.
Stony Brook gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Rhode Island is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Result: Rhode Island 24, Stony Brook 56. Stony Brook won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 40.9 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Rhode Island / Stony Brook) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Rhode Island -13.5 → Rhode Island -9.5 | 52.5 → 51.5 | -346 / +260 |
| DraftKings | Rhode Island -13.5 → Rhode Island -9.5 | 52.5 → 51.5 | -346 / +260 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Stony Brook win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Rhode Island -9 | 58.2 | 28% |
| Market consensus | Rhode Island -9.5 | 51.5 | 26% |
| Blended projection | Rhode Island -9.5 | 52.6 | 26% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Stony Brook win probability
- model 28% · market (no-vig) 26% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model Rhode Island -8.9 · market Rhode Island -9.5 · difference +0.6 pts (Stony Brook view)
- Total
- model 58.2 · market 51.5 · difference +6.7
Model margin is 0.6 pts more toward Stony Brook than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Rhode Island 33.6, Stony Brook 24.7 | Rhode Island 72%wrong winner | 40.9 | 21.8 |
| New formula | Rhode Island 32.0, Stony Brook 23.8 | Rhode Island 70%wrong winner | 40.2 | 24.3 |
Final: Rhode Island 24, Stony Brook 56. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Rhode Island vs Stony Brook: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Rhode Island | Stony Brook |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.3 | 28.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.1 | 25.8 |
| Yards per play | 6.75 | 5.07 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.15 | 5.50 |
| Rushing yards per game | 158.4 | 178.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 296.1 | 228.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 175.6 | 156.7 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 193.6 | 230.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.21 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 2.57 | 2.00 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.29 | 2.75 |
| Stat | Rhode Island | Stony Brook |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08 | -0.05 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01 | -0.00 |
| Success rate | 43.9% | 40.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.8% | 39.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 15.5% | 9.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3% | 12.9% |
| Havoc rate | 11.4% | 13.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 10.8% | 12.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.58 | 3.42 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.23 | 4.26 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 4 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.4 | 80.3 |
| Stat | Rhode Island | Stony Brook |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.15 | -0.13 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07 | -0.08 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.05 | +0.07 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.2% | 44.0% |
| Passing success rate | 44.5% | 39.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.5% | 14.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.9% | 25.7% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.9% | 33.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.3% | 41.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.4% | 34.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 60.1% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.5% | 67.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Rhode Island schedule · Stony Brook schedule · all Week 3 projections
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