Matchup analysis
Our model projects Stony Brook 34, New Hampshire 22 at Wildcat Stadium (NH) in Week 11. That is a solid edge: Stony Brook wins about 77% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.3 points and 56.3 combined points.
Stony Brook is 5-3 against the 137th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.9 and allowing 30.4 points per game (+2.5 per game). New Hampshire is 2-7 against the 77th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 19.3 and allowing 33.2 points per game (-13.9 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Stony Brook by 34 and New Hampshire by 11 about 80% of the time.
New Hampshire gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Stony Brook is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Stony Brook vs New Hampshire: stat comparison
| Stat | Stony Brook | New Hampshire |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.9 | 19.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.4 | 33.2 |
| Yards per play | 6.01 | 5.12 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.24 | 5.92 |
| Rushing yards per game | 165.5 | 102.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 251.6 | 198.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 199.6 | 243.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 216.0 | 185.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.63 | 0.78 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75 | 0.78 |
| Sacks per game | 3.50 | 1.44 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.38 | 3.22 |
| Stat | Stony Brook | New Hampshire |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.10 | -0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.12 | +0.13 |
| Success rate | 39.4% | 37.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.9% | 41.9% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.6% | 11.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.1% | 14.7% |
| Havoc rate | 14.4% | 9.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.2% | 15.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.61 | 3.43 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.75 | 4.35 |
| Average starting field position | opp 9 | opp 11 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 9 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.4 | 58.8 |
| Stat | Stony Brook | New Hampshire |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.03 | -0.13 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.16 | +0.05 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.11 | +0.21 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.11 | +0.04 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.0% | 31.7% |
| Passing success rate | 42.9% | 37.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.8% | 24.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.6% | 25.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.0% | 29.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.0% | 32.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.8% | 41.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 61.7% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 37.1% | 68.2% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Stony Brook schedule · New Hampshire schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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