Matchup analysis
Our model projects Stony Brook 32, Sacred Heart 23 at Kenneth P. LaValle Stadium in Week 9. That is a solid edge: Stony Brook wins about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.1 points and 55.2 combined points.
Sacred Heart is 3-4 against the 130th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.1 and allowing 24.3 points per game (-4.2 per game). Stony Brook is 5-3 against the 98th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.9 and allowing 30.4 points per game (+2.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Sacred Heart by 13 and Stony Brook by 32 about 80% of the time.
Stony Brook gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Stony Brook by about 7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Sacred Heart vs Stony Brook: stat comparison
| Stat | Sacred Heart | Stony Brook |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.1 | 32.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.3 | 30.4 |
| Yards per play | 5.27 | 6.01 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.98 | 6.24 |
| Rushing yards per game | 177.3 | 165.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 178.1 | 251.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 150.0 | 199.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 173.9 | 216.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.29 | 0.63 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.14 | 0.75 |
| Sacks per game | 0.71 | 3.50 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.86 | 1.38 |
| Stat | Sacred Heart | Stony Brook |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07 | +0.10 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.15 | +0.12 |
| Success rate | 42.6% | 39.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 42.4% | 41.9% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.2% | 11.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.5% | 16.1% |
| Havoc rate | 9.9% | 14.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.1% | 14.2% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.46 | 3.61 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.63 | 3.75 |
| Average starting field position | opp 11 | opp 9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 8 | opp 9 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.4 | 69.4 |
| Stat | Sacred Heart | Stony Brook |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.22 | +0.16 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10 | +0.11 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.20 | +0.11 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.4% | 40.0% |
| Passing success rate | 45.6% | 42.9% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.0% | 19.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.0% | 29.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.0% | 31.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.6% | 42.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.6% | 39.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.4% | 61.7% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.0% | 37.1% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Sacred Heart schedule · Stony Brook schedule · all Week 9 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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