Matchup analysis
Our model projects Western Illinois 32, Lindenwood 26 at Hunter Stadium in Week 12. That is a lean: Western Illinois wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.3 points and 58.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Western Illinois is 4-4 against the 62nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 34.5 and allowing 25.1 points per game (+9.4 per game). Lindenwood is 3-4 against the 50th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 22.9 and allowing 27.1 points per game (-4.2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Western Illinois by 28 and Lindenwood by 17 about 80% of the time.
Lindenwood gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Western Illinois is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Western Illinois vs Lindenwood: stat comparison
| Stat | Western Illinois | Lindenwood |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 34.5 | 22.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.1 | 27.1 |
| Yards per play | 6.51 | 5.64 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.32 | 6.22 |
| Rushing yards per game | 224.6 | 173.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 231.0 | 168.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 139.1 | 155.0 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 199.9 | 260.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.88 | 0.43 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25 | 1.14 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 1.29 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.75 | 2.14 |
| Stat | Western Illinois | Lindenwood |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.11 | -0.01 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03 | +0.11 |
| Success rate | 43.8% | 35.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.4% | 45.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.8% | 11.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.5% | 13.9% |
| Havoc rate | 13.5% | 10.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.5% | 17.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.79 | 3.25 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.52 | 3.97 |
| Average starting field position | opp 8 | opp 19 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 7 | opp 18 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.0 | 60.6 |
| Stat | Western Illinois | Lindenwood |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.20 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03 | +0.01 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.09 | +0.15 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04 | +0.07 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.9% | 31.1% |
| Passing success rate | 39.3% | 35.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 14.3% | 23.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.3% | 26.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.9% | 27.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.0% | 35.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.1% | 44.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 44.2% | 54.9% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 49.4% | 71.7% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Western Illinois schedule · Lindenwood schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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