Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Eastern Illinois 27.9, Lindenwood 25.4 at O'Brien Field in Week 7. That is a genuine toss-up: Eastern Illinois wins about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.5 points and 53.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Lindenwood is 1-4, scoring 19.2 and allowing 33.6 points per game (-14.4 per game). Eastern Illinois is 2-4, scoring 18.5 and allowing 35.5 points per game (-17 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Lindenwood by 20 and Eastern Illinois by 25 about 80% of the time.
Eastern Illinois gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Eastern Illinois by about 0.4. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Lindenwood 20, Eastern Illinois 13. Lindenwood won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 9.5 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Lindenwood / Eastern Illinois) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Lindenwood -1.5 → Eastern Illinois -1.5 | 49.5 | -102 / -121 |
| DraftKings | Lindenwood -1.5 → Eastern Illinois -1.5 | 49.5 | -102 / -121 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Eastern Illinois win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Eastern Illinois -2.5 | 53.3 | 57% |
| Market consensus | Eastern Illinois -1.5 | 49.5 | 52% |
| Blended projection | Eastern Illinois -1.5 | 50.6 | 55% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Eastern Illinois win probability
- model 57% · market (no-vig) 52% · difference +5 pts
- Margin
- model Eastern Illinois -2.5 · market Eastern Illinois -1.5 · difference +1.0 pts (Eastern Illinois view)
- Total
- model 53.3 · market 49.5 · difference +3.8
Model margin is 1.0 pts more toward Eastern Illinois than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Lindenwood 25.4, Eastern Illinois 27.9 | Eastern Illinois 57%wrong winner | 9.5 | 20.3 |
| New formula | Lindenwood 25.2, Eastern Illinois 27.9 | Eastern Illinois 57%wrong winner | 9.7 | 20.1 |
Final: Lindenwood 20, Eastern Illinois 13. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Lindenwood vs Eastern Illinois: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Lindenwood | Eastern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.8 | 17.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.0 | 29.2 |
| Yards per play | 5.96 | 5.13 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.75 | 6.14 |
| Rushing yards per game | 148.5 | 156.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 224.6 | 166.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 185.1 | 156.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 191.9 | 237.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.08 | 1.36 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75 | 1.36 |
| Sacks per game | 1.67 | 1.09 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00 | 2.82 |
| Stat | Lindenwood | Eastern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01 | -0.12 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.02 |
| Success rate | 40.1% | 38.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.3% | 46.4% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.6% | 12.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.4% | 13.8% |
| Havoc rate | 11.0% | 12.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.6% | 17.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.16 | 3.38 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.70 | 3.81 |
| Average starting field position | opp 14 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 13 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.6 | 63.0 |
| Stat | Lindenwood | Eastern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.08 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.06 | -0.21 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08 | -0.07 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12 | +0.10 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.3% | 40.3% |
| Passing success rate | 43.9% | 36.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 23.3% | 22.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.3% | 29.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.1% | 32.8% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.8% | 35.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.0% | 45.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 69.5% | 51.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 43.6% | 59.7% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Lindenwood schedule · Eastern Illinois schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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