Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Missouri State 40.8, Lindenwood 11.5 at Robert W. Plaster Stadium in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: Missouri State wins about 97% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 29.3 points and 52.3 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Lindenwood is 1-1, scoring 26 and allowing 26.5 points per game (-0.5 per game). Missouri State is 0-1, scoring 0 and allowing 50 points per game (-50 per game).
Lindenwood plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Missouri State's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Missouri State by 7 and Missouri State by 52 about 80% of the time.
Missouri State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Missouri State by about 27.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Lindenwood 14, Missouri State 48. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4.7 points and the total by 9.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, Action Network, ESPN · Updated Oct 30, 10:26 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Lindenwood / Missouri State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Missouri State -18.25 → Missouri State -16.75 | 52.5 → 53.25 | +562.5 / -850 |
| Bovada | Missouri State -17 | 52.5 → 53 | +550 / -850 |
| DraftKings | Missouri State -19.5 → Missouri State -16.5 | 52.5 → 53.5 | +575 / -850 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Missouri State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Missouri State -29.5 | 52.3 | 97% |
| Market consensus | Missouri State -17 | 53.3 | 86% |
| Blended projection | Missouri State -19 | 53.7 | 90% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Missouri State win probability
- model 97% · market (no-vig) 86% · difference +12 pts
- Margin
- model Missouri State -29.3 · market Missouri State -16.75 · difference +12.6 pts (Missouri State view)
- Total
- model 52.3 · market 53.25 · difference -1.0
Model margin is 12.6 pts more toward Missouri State than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Lindenwood 11.5, Missouri State 40.8 | Missouri State 97%right winner | 4.7 | 9.7 |
| New formula | Lindenwood 18.8, Missouri State 36.5 | Missouri State 86%right winner | 16.3 | 6.7 |
Final: Lindenwood 14, Missouri State 48. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Lindenwood vs Missouri State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Lindenwood | Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.8 | 25.6#84 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.0 | 28.8#93 |
| Yards per play | 5.96 | 6.56#23 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.75 | 6.28#112 |
| Rushing yards per game | 148.5 | 137.3#111 |
| Net passing yards per game | 224.6 | 286.9#11 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 185.1 | 163.0#74 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 191.9 | 238.1#104 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.08 | 1.00#70 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75 | 0.85#97 |
| Sacks per game | 1.67 | 2.08#63 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00 | 3.69#134 |
| Stat | Lindenwood | Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01 | +0.10#34 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.05#94 |
| Success rate | 40.1% | 40.8%#96 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.3% | 42.7%#85 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.6% | 15.2%#13 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.4% | 13.6%#114 |
| Havoc rate | 11.0% | 13.0%#59 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.6% | 19.0%#136 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.16 | 4.02#67 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.70 | 3.96#81 |
| Average starting field position | opp 14 | own 29#82 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 13 | own 30#77 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.6 | 64.7#90 |
| Stat | Lindenwood | Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.08 | +0.02#76 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.06 | +0.15#30 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08 | -0.01#56 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12 | +0.10#103 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.3% | 37.1%#123 |
| Passing success rate | 43.9% | 42.2%#56 |
| Run stuff rate | 23.3% | 24.8%#136 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.3% | 31.2%#60 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.1% | 27.2%#30 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.8% | 38.5%#96 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.0% | 42.0%#89 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 69.5% | 64.5%#48 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 43.6% | 63.7%#93 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Lindenwood schedule · Missouri State schedule · all Week 2 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.