Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Eastern Michigan 34.6, Lindenwood 21.4 at Rynearson Stadium in Week 4. That is a solid edge: Eastern Michigan wins about 81% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.2 points and 56 combined points.
Lindenwood is 1-2, scoring 22 and allowing 33.7 points per game (-11.7 per game). Eastern Michigan is 1-3, scoring 16.5 and allowing 33.3 points per game (-16.8 per game).
Lindenwood plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Eastern Michigan's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Lindenwood by 9 and Eastern Michigan by 36 about 80% of the time.
Eastern Michigan gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Eastern Michigan by about 11.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Lindenwood 3, Eastern Michigan 29. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 12.8 points and the total by 24.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Lindenwood / Eastern Michigan) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Eastern Michigan -25.5 → Eastern Michigan -24.25 | 50.75 → 53.75 | +1200 / -3200 |
| DraftKings | Eastern Michigan -25.5 → Eastern Michigan -24.5 | 50.5 → 53.5 | +1200 / -2400 |
| Bovada | Eastern Michigan -25.5 → Eastern Michigan -24 | 51 → 54 | +1200 / -4000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Eastern Michigan win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Eastern Michigan -13 | 56.0 | 81% |
| Market consensus | Eastern Michigan -24.5 | 53.8 | 93% |
| Blended projection | Eastern Michigan -22.5 | 54.4 | 94% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Eastern Michigan win probability
- model 81% · market (no-vig) 93% · difference -12 pts
- Margin
- model Eastern Michigan -13.2 · market Eastern Michigan -24.25 · difference -11.0 pts (Eastern Michigan view)
- Total
- model 56.0 · market 53.75 · difference +2.3
Model margin is 11.0 pts more toward Lindenwood than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Lindenwood 21.4, Eastern Michigan 34.6 | Eastern Michigan 81%right winner | 12.8 | 24.0 |
| New formula | Lindenwood 20.9, Eastern Michigan 34.9 | Eastern Michigan 82%right winner | 12.0 | 23.7 |
Final: Lindenwood 3, Eastern Michigan 29. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Lindenwood vs Eastern Michigan: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Lindenwood | Eastern Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.0 | 16.5#130 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.7 | 33.3#120 |
| Yards per play | 4.84 | 4.67#131 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.95 | 6.27#111 |
| Rushing yards per game | 161.0 | 103.0#133 |
| Net passing yards per game | 136.0 | 185.5#100 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 185.0 | 147.3#81 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 287.3 | 277.5#128 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.33 | 1.25#102 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67 | 1.25#45 |
| Sacks per game | 2.33 | 1.25#109 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00 | 2.00#96 |
| Stat | Lindenwood | Eastern Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.08#127 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.16 | +0.10#106 |
| Success rate | 34.9% | 36.8%#124 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.4% | 44.4%#111 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.9% | 9.0%#132 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.5% | 12.9%#98 |
| Havoc rate | 9.6% | 12.8%#97 |
| Havoc allowed | 17.0% | 13.6%#82 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.63 | 3.92#91 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.35 | 4.21#95 |
| Average starting field position | opp 24 | own 25#133 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 23 | own 32#114 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.3 | 61.8#102 |
| Stat | Lindenwood | Eastern Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | +0.06#83 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.07 | -0.18#130 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.23 | +0.04#83 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.11 | +0.14#101 |
| Rushing success rate | 32.3% | 36.6%#119 |
| Passing success rate | 31.3% | 35.1%#119 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.5% | 17.5%#81 |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.7% | 21.3%#132 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.0% | 31.7%#95 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.8% | 35.7%#114 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.0% | 45.5%#113 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 43.0% | 61.8%#87 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 56.0% | 76.0%#117 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Lindenwood schedule · Eastern Michigan schedule · all Week 4 projections
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