Matchup analysis
Our model projects Chicago State 45, Virginia Lynchburg 13 at SeatGeek Stadium in Week 11. That is a heavy edge: Chicago State wins about 98% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 31.9 points and 58.6 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Virginia Lynchburg is unbeaten in the books against the 166th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 0.8 and allowing 56 points per game (-55.2 per game). Chicago State is 1-7 against the 134th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.4 and allowing 38.8 points per game (-14.4 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chicago State by 9 and Chicago State by 54 about 80% of the time.
Chicago State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Chicago State by about 29.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Virginia Lynchburg vs Chicago State: stat comparison
| Stat | Virginia Lynchburg | Chicago State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.8 | 24.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 56.0 | 38.8 |
| Yards per play | 4.37 | 5.34 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.90 | 7.10 |
| Rushing yards per game | 85.0 | 91.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 209.8 | 260.4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 304.5 | 227.5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 219.0 | 222.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 3.00 | 1.75 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 0.50 | 1.63 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Stat | Virginia Lynchburg | Chicago State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.19 | -0.12 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.23 | +0.11 |
| Success rate | 32.2% | 35.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 49.3% | 43.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.1% | 10.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.2% | 16.1% |
| Havoc rate | 11.5% | 15.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 20.2% | 17.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 1.57 | 0.00 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.72 | 0.00 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.5 | 66.0 |
| Stat | Virginia Lynchburg | Chicago State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.10 | -0.14 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.26 | -0.10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.27 | +0.12 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.18 | +0.09 |
| Rushing success rate | 26.8% | 29.1% |
| Passing success rate | 25.5% | 39.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 25.3% | 23.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.1% | 30.0% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.0% | 34.8% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.1% | 39.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 52.4% | 43.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 28.8% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Virginia Lynchburg schedule · Chicago State schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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