Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Chicago State 28.8, Roosevelt 25.2 at SeatGeek Stadium in Week 1. That is a lean: Chicago State wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.6 points and 54 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Roosevelt has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Chicago State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Roosevelt by 19 and Chicago State by 26 about 80% of the time.
Chicago State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Chicago State by about 1.5.
Result: Roosevelt 44, Chicago State 28. Roosevelt won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 19.6 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Roosevelt 25.2, Chicago State 28.8 | Chicago State 59%wrong winner | 19.6 | 18.0 |
| New formula | Roosevelt 22.0, Chicago State 32.5 | Chicago State 73%wrong winner | 26.5 | 17.4 |
Final: Roosevelt 44, Chicago State 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
More: Roosevelt schedule · Chicago State schedule · all Week 1 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.