Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Butler 35.3, Chicago State 24 at Bud and Jackie Sellick Bowl in Week 3. That is a solid edge: Butler wins about 77% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.3 points and 59.3 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Chicago State is 1-2, scoring 37.7 and allowing 31 points per game (+6.7 per game). Butler is 2-1, scoring 34.3 and allowing 24.7 points per game (+9.6 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chicago State by 11 and Butler by 34 about 80% of the time.
Butler gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Butler by about 9.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Chicago State 20, Butler 47. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 15.7 points and the total by 7.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Chicago State / Butler) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Butler -19.5 → Butler -20.5 | 53.5 → 54.5 | +820 / -1700 |
| DraftKings | Butler -19.5 → Butler -20.5 | 53.5 → 54.5 | +820 / -1700 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Butler win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Butler -11.5 | 59.3 | 77% |
| Market consensus | Butler -20.5 | 54.5 | 90% |
| Blended projection | Butler -19 | 55.2 | 90% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Butler win probability
- model 77% · market (no-vig) 90% · difference -13 pts
- Margin
- model Butler -11.3 · market Butler -20.5 · difference -9.2 pts (Butler view)
- Total
- model 59.3 · market 54.5 · difference +4.8
Model margin is 9.2 pts more toward Chicago State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Chicago State 24.0, Butler 35.3 | Butler 77%right winner | 15.7 | 7.7 |
| New formula | Chicago State 22.3, Butler 35.8 | Butler 81%right winner | 13.5 | 8.9 |
Final: Chicago State 20, Butler 47. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
More: Chicago State schedule · Butler schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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