Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Tarleton State 45.1, Chicago State 17.4 at Tarleton Memorial Stadium in Week 5. That is a heavy edge: Tarleton State wins about 97% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 27.7 points and 62.4 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans high scoring.
Chicago State is 1-4, scoring 30.6 and allowing 36.6 points per game (-6 per game). Tarleton State is 4-0, scoring 35.3 and allowing 21.8 points per game (+13.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Tarleton State by 5 and Tarleton State by 50 about 80% of the time.
Tarleton State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Tarleton State by about 25.6. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Chicago State 21, Tarleton State 56. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 7.3 points and the total by 14.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Chicago State / Tarleton State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Tarleton State -49.5 → Tarleton State -50.5 | 60.5 → 64.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Tarleton State -49.5 → Tarleton State -50.5 | 60.5 → 64.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Tarleton State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Tarleton State -27.5 | 62.4 | 97% |
| Market consensus | Tarleton State -50.5 | 64.5 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Tarleton State -47 | 64.0 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Tarleton State win probability
- model 97% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Tarleton State -27.7 · market Tarleton State -50.5 · difference -22.8 pts (Tarleton State view)
- Total
- model 62.4 · market 64.5 · difference -2.1
Model margin is 22.8 pts more toward Chicago State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Chicago State 17.4, Tarleton State 45.1 | Tarleton State 97%right winner | 7.3 | 14.6 |
| New formula | Chicago State 17.8, Tarleton State 43.7 | Tarleton State 96%right winner | 9.1 | 15.5 |
Final: Chicago State 21, Tarleton State 56. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
More: Chicago State schedule · Tarleton State schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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