Matchup analysis
Our model projects Monmouth 41, North Carolina A&T 19 at Kessler Stadium in Week 10. That is a heavy edge: Monmouth wins about 93% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 22.4 points and 60.4 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans high scoring.
North Carolina A&T is 3-5 against the 118th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.3 and allowing 29.5 points per game (-9.2 per game). Monmouth is 6-2 against the 101st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.3 and allowing 29.1 points per game (+2.2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between a tie and Monmouth by 45 about 80% of the time.
Monmouth gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Monmouth by about 20.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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North Carolina A&T vs Monmouth: stat comparison
| Stat | North Carolina A&T | Monmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.3 | 31.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.5 | 29.1 |
| Yards per play | 5.15 | 5.82 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.21 | 5.75 |
| Rushing yards per game | 130.4 | 188.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 184.9 | 239.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 176.5 | 158.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 222.8 | 210.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 0.63 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.38 | 0.75 |
| Sacks per game | 1.63 | 2.38 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.75 | 0.25 |
| Stat | North Carolina A&T | Monmouth |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.02 | +0.10 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.10 | +0.07 |
| Success rate | 34.9% | 45.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.7% | 37.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.6% | 10.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.5% | 14.0% |
| Havoc rate | 14.7% | 13.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 16.3% | 10.2% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.71 | 3.55 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.19 | 4.67 |
| Average starting field position | opp 10 | opp 10 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 8 | opp 10 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.3 | 73.6 |
| Stat | North Carolina A&T | Monmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07 | +0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03 | +0.12 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.14 | +0.13 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.06 | -0.00 |
| Rushing success rate | 32.8% | 48.6% |
| Passing success rate | 37.0% | 46.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.5% | 15.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.8% | 34.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.1% | 32.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.2% | 51.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.6% | 44.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 50.3% | 53.9% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 63.6% | 69.3% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: North Carolina A&T schedule · Monmouth schedule · all Week 10 projections
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