2026 schedule
Monmouth Hawks
2026 season so far
Monmouth is 6-2 against the 84th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.3 and allowing 29.1 points per game (+2.2 per game).
Monmouth plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs Bryant in Week 9. We project Monmouth 36, Bryant 21 — Monmouth wins 83% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- at
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles
1-0 · SOS #96
Loss 14-38
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Tennessee Tech by 5.3
Total 64.3
DraftKings
TNTC -8.5
Total 58.5
Final Tennessee Tech by 24. Tennessee Tech beat the spread. 52 points — under the 58.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Tennessee Tech -8.5 · O/U 58.5 · ML +257 / -340 · Tennessee Tech 73% no-vig · model vs market -3.2 pts, -10 pct pts (Tennessee Tech view)
ESPN+ Tucker StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: missedPattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnder · high total, night game: hit · Under · high total, night game → went under 16 of 26 from week 4 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 3 of 9 - vs
Sacred Heart Pioneers
0-1 · SOS #130
Win 31-24
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Monmouth by 8.3
Total 64.5
DraftKings
MONM -11.5
Total 58.5
Final Monmouth by 7. Sacred Heart beat the spread. 55 points — under the 58.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Monmouth -11.5 (open Monmouth -15.5) · O/U 58.5 · ML +432 / -640 · Monmouth 82% no-vig · model vs market -3.2 pts, -12 pct pts (Monmouth view)
Kessler StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: missed - at
Western Michigan Broncos
1-1 · SOS #92
Loss 14-49
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Western Michigan by 34.3
Total 51.3
DraftKings
WMU -29.5
Total 54.5
Final Western Michigan by 35. Western Michigan beat the spread. 63 points — over the 54.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Western Michigan -29 (open Western Michigan -26.5) · O/U 54.5 (open 52.5) · ML +1800 / -5000 · Western Michigan 95% no-vig · model vs market +5.3 pts, +4 pct pts (Western Michigan view)
ESPN+ Waldo StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit - at
UAlbany Great Danes
2-2 · SOS #78
Win 28-20
Week 3
Our number· pregame
UAlbany by 10.8
Total 48.4
DraftKings
MONM -2.5
Total 50.5
Final Monmouth by 8. Monmouth beat the spread. 48 points — under the 50.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Monmouth -2.5 (open UAlbany -1.5) · O/U 50.5 (open 51.5) · ML -150 / +121 · UAlbany 43% no-vig · model vs market +13.3 pts, +33 pct pts (UAlbany view)
Bob Ford Field at Tom & Mary Casey StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed - at
Dartmouth Big Green
0-2 · SOS #138
Win 31-28
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Dartmouth by 12.2
Total 59.6
DraftKings
DART -3
Total 51.5
Final Monmouth by 3. Monmouth beat the spread. 59 points — over the 51.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Dartmouth -3 (open Dartmouth -2.5) · O/U 51.5 (open 53.5) · ML +128 / -160 · Dartmouth 58% no-vig · model vs market +9.2 pts, +20 pct pts (Dartmouth view)
Game-time weather: Mostly cloudy, 57°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLEB)ESPN+ Memorial Field (Dartmouth)Pregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missed - vs
Towson Tigers
0-6 · SOS #18
Win 41-40
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Monmouth by 11.1
Total 61.1
DraftKings
MONM -10.5
Total 56.5
Final Monmouth by 1. Towson beat the spread. 81 points — over the 56.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Monmouth -10.5 · O/U 56.5 (open 55.5) · ML +284 / -382 · Monmouth 75% no-vig · model vs market +0.6 pts, +1 pct pts (Monmouth view)
Game-time weather: Mostly cloudy, 68°F, Wind 10 mph ENE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBLM)Kessler StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games - at
New Hampshire Wildcats
2-6 · SOS #71
Win 42-21
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Monmouth by 5
Total 61
DraftKings
MONM -7
Total 55.5
Final Monmouth by 21. Monmouth beat the spread. 63 points — over the 55.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Monmouth -7 (open Monmouth -7.5) · O/U 55.5 (open 57.5) · ML -288 / +221 · New Hampshire 30% no-vig · model vs market +2.0 pts, +8 pct pts (New Hampshire view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 46°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDAW)Wildcat Stadium (NH)Pregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missedPattern · Watching Under · high total, close game: Record 30 hits, 30 misses (50% hit rate) over 60 graded gamesUnder · high total, close game: missed · Under · high total, close game → went under 26 of 38 since week 3 · base 54% - at
Hampton Pirates
1-7 · SOS #104
Win 49-13
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Monmouth by 21.3
Total 60.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Monmouth by 36. 62 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Partly cloudy, 65°F, Wind 15 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLFI)Armstrong StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitBlowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games - vs
Bryant Bulldogs
5-3 · SOS #94
Sat, Oct 31, 5:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 36-21 · 83%
Our number
Monmouth by 15
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly sunny, 58°F, Wind 5 mph N, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTKessler Stadium - vs
North Carolina A&T Aggies
3-5 · SOS #99
Sat, Nov 7, 5:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 41-19 · 93%
Our number
Monmouth by 22
Total 60
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kessler StadiumExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games - vs
Merrimack Warriors
3-5 · SOS #95
Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 34-22 · 79%
Our number
Monmouth by 12
Total 56
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kessler Stadium - at
Campbell Fighting Camels
7-1 · SOS #86
Sat, Nov 21, 6:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 32-30 · 54%
Our number
Monmouth by 2
Total 62
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Barker-Lane StadiumExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
Times shown in your local time
Monmouth Hawks stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-15.4
Adj. offense
22.3
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
37.7
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 31.3 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 29.1 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.82 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.75 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 188.8 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 239.5 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 158.1 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 210.4 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.63 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.75 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.38 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 0.25 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.10 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.07 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 45.5% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 37.2% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 10.6% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 14.0% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 13.5% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 10.2% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.55 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 4.67 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 10 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 10 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 73.6 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.08 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.12 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.13 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.00 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 48.6% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 46.2% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 15.4% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 34.3% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 32.5% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 51.8% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 44.8% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 53.9% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 69.3% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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