Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Monmouth 36.4, Sacred Heart 28.1 at Kessler Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Monmouth wins about 71% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.3 points and 64.4 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Sacred Heart has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Monmouth is 0-1, scoring 14 and allowing 38 points per game (-24 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Sacred Heart by 14 and Monmouth by 31 about 80% of the time.
Monmouth gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Monmouth by about 6.2.
Result: Sacred Heart 24, Monmouth 31. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.3 points and the total by 9.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Sacred Heart / Monmouth) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Monmouth -15.5 → Monmouth -11.5 | 58.5 | +432 / -640 |
| DraftKings | Monmouth -15.5 → Monmouth -11.5 | 58.5 | +432 / -640 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Monmouth win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Monmouth -8.5 | 64.4 | 71% |
| Market consensus | Monmouth -11.5 | 58.5 | 82% |
| Blended projection | Monmouth -11 | 59.0 | 77% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Monmouth win probability
- model 71% · market (no-vig) 82% · difference -12 pts
- Margin
- model Monmouth -8.3 · market Monmouth -11.5 · difference -3.2 pts (Monmouth view)
- Total
- model 64.4 · market 58.5 · difference +5.9
Model margin is 3.2 pts more toward Sacred Heart than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Sacred Heart 28.1, Monmouth 36.4 | Monmouth 71%right winner | 1.3 | 9.4 |
| New formula | Sacred Heart 24.5, Monmouth 36.1 | Monmouth 75%right winner | 4.5 | 5.6 |
Final: Sacred Heart 24, Monmouth 31. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Sacred Heart vs Monmouth: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Sacred Heart | Monmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.6 | 40.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.3 | 27.8 |
| Yards per play | 6.26 | 6.97 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.39 | 5.68 |
| Rushing yards per game | 235.8 | 217.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 161.6 | 339.7 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 175.5 | 181.7 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 227.5 | 275.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.40 | 1.08 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.60 | 1.50 |
| Sacks per game | 1.40 | 3.33 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.90 | 1.92 |
| Stat | Sacred Heart | Monmouth |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.11 | +0.15 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13 | +0.07 |
| Success rate | 44.3% | 48.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.3% | 45.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.6% | 12.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.7% | 12.7% |
| Havoc rate | 11.4% | 11.2% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.0% | 9.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 4.33 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 4.07 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.5 | 79.9 |
| Stat | Sacred Heart | Monmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12 | +0.12 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.11 | +0.17 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.18 | +0.14 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.9% | 53.4% |
| Passing success rate | 43.2% | 49.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.9% | 12.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.1% | 32.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.6% | 33.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 47.0% | 51.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.2% | 44.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 70.9% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 72.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Sacred Heart schedule · Monmouth schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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