Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Western Michigan 42.8, Monmouth 8.5 at Waldo Stadium in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: Western Michigan wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 34.2 points and 51.3 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Monmouth is 1-1, scoring 22.5 and allowing 31 points per game (-8.5 per game). Western Michigan is 0-1, scoring 12 and allowing 13 points per game (-1 per game).
Monmouth plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Western Michigan's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Western Michigan by 12 and Western Michigan by 57 about 80% of the time.
Western Michigan gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Western Michigan by about 32.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Monmouth 14, Western Michigan 49. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.8 points and the total by 11.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Monmouth / Western Michigan) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Western Michigan -26.5 → Western Michigan -29 | 52.5 → 54.5 | +1800 / -5000 |
| Bovada | Western Michigan -27.5 → Western Michigan -28.5 | 52.5 → 54.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Western Michigan -25.5 → Western Michigan -29.5 | 52.5 → 54.5 | +1800 / -5000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Western Michigan win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Western Michigan -34 | 51.3 | 99% |
| Market consensus | Western Michigan -29 | 54.5 | 95% |
| Blended projection | Western Michigan -30 | 54.8 | 98% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Western Michigan win probability
- model 99% · market (no-vig) 95% · difference +4 pts
- Margin
- model Western Michigan -34.2 · market Western Michigan -29 · difference +5.2 pts (Western Michigan view)
- Total
- model 51.3 · market 54.5 · difference -3.2
Model margin is 5.2 pts more toward Western Michigan than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Monmouth 8.5, Western Michigan 42.8 | Western Michigan 99%right winner | 0.8 | 11.7 |
| New formula | Monmouth 14.4, Western Michigan 41.6 | Western Michigan 95%right winner | 7.8 | 7.0 |
Final: Monmouth 14, Western Michigan 49. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Monmouth vs Western Michigan: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Monmouth | Western Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 40.0 | 24.9#88 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.8 | 17.4#9 |
| Yards per play | 6.97 | 5.10#126 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.68 | 5.39#38 |
| Rushing yards per game | 217.6 | 221.9#14 |
| Net passing yards per game | 339.7 | 122.6#133 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 181.7 | 155.1#57 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 275.3 | 178.7#17 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.08 | 0.79#30 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50 | 1.43#24 |
| Sacks per game | 3.33 | 3.00#4 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.92 | 1.64#52 |
| Stat | Monmouth | Western Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.15 | -0.01#96 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07 | -0.07#27 |
| Success rate | 48.3% | 43.3%#56 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.5% | 37.2%#20 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.5% | 10.7%#121 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.7% | 11.0%#37 |
| Havoc rate | 11.2% | 13.8%#35 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.3% | 10.5%#25 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.33 | 3.34#123 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.07 | 3.32#16 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | own 33#10 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | own 28#34 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 79.9 | 67.6#53 |
| Stat | Monmouth | Western Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12 | +0.01#86 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.17 | -0.07#106 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01 | +0.02#79 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.14 | -0.17#16 |
| Rushing success rate | 53.4% | 47.7%#23 |
| Passing success rate | 49.2% | 36.2%#116 |
| Run stuff rate | 12.4% | 16.7%#44 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.5% | 24.6%#124 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.7% | 28.7%#58 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 51.8% | 41.3%#64 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.8% | 33.3%#13 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 70.9% | 57.9%#90 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 72.9% | 47.6%#11 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Monmouth schedule · Western Michigan schedule · all Week 2 projections
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