Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Monmouth 33, New Hampshire 28 at Wildcat Stadium (NH) in Week 7. That is a lean: Monmouth wins about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5 points and 60.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans high scoring.
Monmouth is 4-2, scoring 26.5 and allowing 33.2 points per game (-6.7 per game). New Hampshire is 2-5, scoring 19.4 and allowing 33.3 points per game (-13.9 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Monmouth by 28 and New Hampshire by 18 about 80% of the time.
New Hampshire gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Monmouth is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Result: Monmouth 42, New Hampshire 21. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 16 points and the total by 2.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Monmouth / New Hampshire) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Monmouth -7.5 → Monmouth -7 | 57.5 → 55.5 | -288 / +221 |
| DraftKings | Monmouth -7.5 → Monmouth -7 | 57.5 → 55.5 | -288 / +221 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | New Hampshire win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Monmouth -5 | 60.9 | 37% |
| Market consensus | Monmouth -7 | 55.5 | 30% |
| Blended projection | Monmouth -6.5 | 56.2 | 32% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- New Hampshire win probability
- model 37% · market (no-vig) 30% · difference +8 pts
- Margin
- model Monmouth -5 · market Monmouth -7 · difference +2.0 pts (New Hampshire view)
- Total
- model 60.9 · market 55.5 · difference +5.4
Model margin is 2.0 pts more toward New Hampshire than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Monmouth 33.0, New Hampshire 28.0 | Monmouth 63%right winner | 16.0 | 2.1 |
| New formula | Monmouth 35.9, New Hampshire 24.0 | Monmouth 78%right winner | 9.1 | 3.1 |
Final: Monmouth 42, New Hampshire 21. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Monmouth vs New Hampshire: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Monmouth | New Hampshire |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 40.0 | 24.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.8 | 22.8 |
| Yards per play | 6.97 | 5.48 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.68 | 5.68 |
| Rushing yards per game | 217.6 | 157.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 339.7 | 204.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 181.7 | 188.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 275.3 | 165.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.08 | 0.54 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 3.33 | 2.15 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.92 | 1.85 |
| Stat | Monmouth | New Hampshire |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.15 | -0.01 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 48.3% | 40.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.5% | 43.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.5% | 12.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.7% | 13.7% |
| Havoc rate | 11.2% | 13.2% |
| Havoc allowed | 9.3% | 12.7% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.33 | 3.01 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.07 | 3.61 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 79.9 | 66.1 |
| Stat | Monmouth | New Hampshire |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.17 | +0.04 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01 | +0.13 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.14 | -0.04 |
| Rushing success rate | 53.4% | 40.4% |
| Passing success rate | 49.2% | 41.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 12.4% | 19.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.5% | 32.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.7% | 32.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 51.8% | 38.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.8% | 43.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 70.9% | 51.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 72.9% | 52.2% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Monmouth schedule · New Hampshire schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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