Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected UAlbany 29.6, Monmouth 18.8 at Bob Ford Field at Tom & Mary Casey Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: UAlbany wins about 76% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.8 points and 48.4 combined points.
Monmouth is 1-2, scoring 19.7 and allowing 37 points per game (-17.3 per game). UAlbany is 2-1, scoring 26.7 and allowing 16 points per game (+10.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Monmouth by 12 and UAlbany by 33 about 80% of the time.
UAlbany gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour UAlbany by about 8.7.
Result: Monmouth 28, UAlbany 20. Monmouth won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 18.8 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Monmouth / UAlbany) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | UAlbany -1.5 → Monmouth -2.5 | 51.5 → 50.5 | -150 / +121 |
| DraftKings | UAlbany -1.5 → Monmouth -2.5 | 51.5 → 50.5 | -150 / +121 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | UAlbany win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | UAlbany -11 | 48.4 | 76% |
| Market consensus | Monmouth -2.5 | 50.5 | 43% |
| Blended projection | Monmouth -0.5 | 51.1 | 49% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- UAlbany win probability
- model 76% · market (no-vig) 43% · difference +33 pts
- Margin
- model UAlbany -10.8 · market Monmouth -2.5 · difference +13.3 pts (UAlbany view)
- Total
- model 48.4 · market 50.5 · difference -2.1
Model margin is 13.3 pts more toward UAlbany than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Monmouth 18.8, UAlbany 29.6 | UAlbany 76%wrong winner | 18.8 | 0.4 |
| New formula | Monmouth 27.3, UAlbany 28.4 | UAlbany 53%wrong winner | 9.1 | 7.7 |
Final: Monmouth 28, UAlbany 20. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Monmouth vs UAlbany: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Monmouth | UAlbany |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 40.0 | 16.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.8 | 32.3 |
| Yards per play | 6.97 | 4.73 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.68 | 5.52 |
| Rushing yards per game | 217.6 | 114.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 339.7 | 200.7 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 181.7 | 183.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 275.3 | 216.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.08 | 1.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50 | 0.64 |
| Sacks per game | 3.33 | 1.55 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.92 | 2.91 |
| Stat | Monmouth | UAlbany |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.15 | -0.11 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.03 |
| Success rate | 48.3% | 35.7% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.5% | 44.4% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.5% | 11.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.7% | 11.8% |
| Havoc rate | 11.2% | 12.6% |
| Havoc allowed | 9.3% | 14.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.33 | 2.90 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.07 | 4.05 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 79.9 | 66.6 |
| Stat | Monmouth | UAlbany |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12 | -0.07 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.17 | -0.13 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.14 | +0.08 |
| Rushing success rate | 53.4% | 37.8% |
| Passing success rate | 49.2% | 32.9% |
| Run stuff rate | 12.4% | 24.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.5% | 28.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.7% | 29.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 51.8% | 30.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.8% | 39.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 70.9% | 53.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 72.9% | 61.8% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Monmouth schedule · UAlbany schedule · all Week 3 projections
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