2026 schedule
UAlbany Great Danes
2026 season so far
UAlbany is 5-3 against the 106th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.8 and allowing 19.1 points per game (+7.7 per game).
UAlbany plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs Campbell in Week 9. We project UAlbany 27, Campbell 26 — UAlbany wins 52% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
New Hampshire Wildcats
0-1 · SOS #77
Win 28-14
Week 1
Our number· pregame
New Hampshire by 6.6
Total 49.6
DraftKings
UNH -10
Total 46.5
Final UAlbany by 14. UAlbany beat the spread. 42 points — under the 46.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: New Hampshire -10 (open New Hampshire -11.5) · O/U 46.5 (open 45.5) · ML -357 / +268 · UAlbany 26% no-vig · model vs market +3.4 pts, +8 pct pts (UAlbany view)
Bob Ford Field at Tom & Mary Casey StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hit - at
Buffalo Bulls
1-0 · SOS #127
Loss 17-21
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Buffalo by 32
Total 50.6
DraftKings
BUFF -18.5
Total 47.5
Final Buffalo by 4. UAlbany beat the spread. 38 points — under the 47.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Buffalo -18.5 (open Buffalo -24.5) · O/U 47.5 (open 48.5) · ML +650 / -1000 · Buffalo 87% no-vig · model vs market +13.5 pts, +11 pct pts (Buffalo view)
ESPN+ Broadview StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: missed - at
Long Island University Sharks
0-3 · SOS #59
Win 35-13
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Long Island University by 3.5
Total 41.7
DraftKings
ALB -2.5
Total 44.5
Final UAlbany by 22. UAlbany beat the spread. 48 points — over the 44.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UAlbany -2.5 (open UAlbany -5.5) · O/U 44.5 · ML -145 / +116 · Long Island University 44% no-vig · model vs market +6.0 pts, +15 pct pts (Long Island University view)
Shark StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed - vs
Monmouth Hawks
2-2 · SOS #101
Loss 20-28
Week 3
Our number· pregame
UAlbany by 10.8
Total 48.4
DraftKings
MONM -2.5
Total 50.5
Final Monmouth by 8. Monmouth beat the spread. 48 points — under the 50.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Monmouth -2.5 (open UAlbany -1.5) · O/U 50.5 (open 51.5) · ML -150 / +121 · UAlbany 43% no-vig · model vs market +13.3 pts, +33 pct pts (UAlbany view)
Bob Ford Field at Tom & Mary Casey StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed - at
Princeton Tigers
1-1 · SOS #128
Loss 0-22
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Princeton by 11.2
Total 45.4
DraftKings
ALB -1.5
Total 43.5
Final Princeton by 22. Princeton beat the spread. 22 points — under the 43.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UAlbany -1.5 · O/U 43.5 (open 45.5) · ML +105 / -130 · Princeton 54% no-vig · model vs market +12.7 pts, +23 pct pts (Princeton view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 63°F, Wind 11 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KTTN)ESPN+ Princeton StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hitLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hit - vs
Delaware State Hornets
3-3 · SOS #124
Win 28-3
Week 5
Our number· pregame
UAlbany by 3.2
Total 49.2
DraftKings
ALB -1.5
Total 45.5
Final UAlbany by 25. UAlbany beat the spread. 31 points — under the 45.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UAlbany -1.5 (open UAlbany -2.5) · O/U 45.5 · ML +106 / -131 · UAlbany 54% no-vig · model vs market +1.7 pts, +4 pct pts (UAlbany view)
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 64°F, Wind 7 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KALB)Bob Ford Field at Tom & Mary Casey StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missed - at
Stony Brook Seawolves
4-3 · SOS #137
Win 48-31
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Stony Brook by 7.1
Total 50.5
DraftKings
STBK -6
Total 46.5
Final UAlbany by 17. UAlbany beat the spread. 79 points — over the 46.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Stony Brook -6 · O/U 46.5 · ML +158 / -200 · Stony Brook 63% no-vig · model vs market +1.1 pts, +5 pct pts (Stony Brook view)
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 52°F, Wind 17 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KISP)Kenneth P. LaValle Stadium - at
Rhode Island Rams
4-4 · SOS #88
Win 38-21
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Rhode Island by 8.2
Total 47.8
Book line
Not posted
Final UAlbany by 17. 59 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 58°F, Wind 3 mph.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSFZ)Centreville Bank StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: hit - vs
Campbell Fighting Camels
7-1 · SOS #109
Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 27-26 · 52%
Our number
UAlbany by 1
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Sunny, 51°F, Wind 7 mph NW, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDTBob Ford Field at Tom & Mary Casey StadiumExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games - at
Bryant Bulldogs
5-3 · SOS #132
Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 26-21 · 63%
Our number
UAlbany by 5
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Beirne StadiumExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Maine Black Bears
1-7 · SOS #63
Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 30-16 · 81%
Our number
UAlbany by 14
Total 46
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Bob Ford Field at Tom & Mary Casey StadiumExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesBlowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games - at
North Carolina A&T Aggies
3-5 · SOS #118
Sat, Nov 21, 5:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 31-19 · 79%
Our number
UAlbany by 12
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Truist StadiumLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
Times shown in your local time
UAlbany Great Danes stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-20.9
Adj. offense
14.7
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
35.6
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 26.8 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 19.1 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.39 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.03 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 198.0 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 156.1 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 128.0 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 187.5 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.75 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.88 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.50 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.50 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.03 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.04 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 44.5% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 40.9% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 8.5% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 12.0% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 17.5% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 13.9% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.30 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.51 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 12 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 12 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 65.8 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.04 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.01 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.03 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.04 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 47.5% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 42.1% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 18.4% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 31.5% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 30.3% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 43.0% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 40.5% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 50.9% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 67.2% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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