Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Princeton 28.3, UAlbany 17.1 at Princeton Stadium in Week 4. That is a solid edge: Princeton wins about 77% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.2 points and 45.4 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
UAlbany is 2-2, scoring 25 and allowing 19 points per game (+6 per game). Princeton is 0-1, scoring 14 and allowing 21 points per game (-7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UAlbany by 11 and Princeton by 34 about 80% of the time.
Princeton gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Princeton by about 9.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: UAlbany 0, Princeton 22. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 10.8 points and the total by 23.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (UAlbany / Princeton) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | UAlbany -1.5 | 45.5 → 43.5 | +105 / -130 |
| DraftKings | UAlbany -1.5 | 45.5 → 43.5 | +105 / -130 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Princeton win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Princeton -11 | 45.4 | 77% |
| Market consensus | UAlbany -1.5 | 43.5 | 54% |
| Blended projection | Princeton -0.5 | 44.9 | 52% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Princeton win probability
- model 77% · market (no-vig) 54% · difference +23 pts
- Margin
- model Princeton -11.2 · market UAlbany -1.5 · difference +12.7 pts (Princeton view)
- Total
- model 45.4 · market 43.5 · difference +1.9
Model margin is 12.7 pts more toward Princeton than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | UAlbany 17.1, Princeton 28.3 | Princeton 77%right winner | 10.8 | 23.4 |
| New formula | UAlbany 17.5, Princeton 28.9 | Princeton 75%right winner | 10.7 | 24.4 |
Final: UAlbany 0, Princeton 22. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
UAlbany vs Princeton: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | UAlbany | Princeton |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 16.8 | 20.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 32.3 | 24.4 |
| Yards per play | 4.73 | 5.03 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.52 | 5.63 |
| Rushing yards per game | 114.7 | 137.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 200.7 | 200.4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 183.6 | 158.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 216.5 | 229.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.64 | 1.50 |
| Sacks per game | 1.55 | 1.10 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.91 | 3.00 |
| Stat | UAlbany | Princeton |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.11 | -0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03 | +0.01 |
| Success rate | 35.7% | 40.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.4% | 45.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2% | 11.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.8% | 9.8% |
| Havoc rate | 12.6% | 11.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.9% | 13.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.90 | 3.02 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.05 | 3.66 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 6 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.6 | 67.1 |
| Stat | UAlbany | Princeton |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07 | +0.00 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.13 | -0.09 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08 | -0.02 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.8% | 44.8% |
| Passing success rate | 32.9% | 37.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 24.5% | 16.0% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.3% | 29.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.5% | 29.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 30.7% | 38.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.2% | 49.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 53.1% | 46.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.8% | 57.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UAlbany schedule · Princeton schedule · all Week 4 projections
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