2026 schedule
Princeton Tigers
2026 season so far
Princeton is 4-2 against the 128th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.3 and allowing 14.3 points per game (+6 per game).
Princeton plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs Cornell in Week 9. We project Princeton 26, Cornell 25 — Princeton wins 54% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
10 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- at
Bryant Bulldogs
3-1 · SOS #132
Loss 14-21
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Bryant by 13.3
Total 47.5
DraftKings
PRIN -2.5
Total 44.5
Final Bryant by 7. Bryant beat the spread. 35 points — under the 44.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Princeton -2.5 (open Princeton -3) · O/U 44.5 · ML -150 / +121 · Bryant 43% no-vig · model vs market +15.8 pts, +38 pct pts (Bryant view)
Beirne StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hitLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hit - vs
UAlbany Great Danes
2-3 · SOS #106
Win 22-0
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Princeton by 11.2
Total 45.4
DraftKings
ALB -1.5
Total 43.5
Final Princeton by 22. Princeton beat the spread. 22 points — under the 43.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UAlbany -1.5 · O/U 43.5 (open 45.5) · ML +105 / -130 · Princeton 54% no-vig · model vs market +12.7 pts, +23 pct pts (Princeton view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 63°F, Wind 11 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KTTN)ESPN+ Princeton StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hitLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hit - at
Columbia Lions
2-1 · SOS #119
Win 35-7
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Columbia by 2
Total 44.2
DraftKings
COLU -1.5
Total 42.5
Final Princeton by 28. Princeton beat the spread. 42 points — under the 42.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Columbia -1.5 (open Princeton -1.5) · O/U 42.5 · ML -112 / -111 · Columbia 50% no-vig · model vs market +0.5 pts, +5 pct pts (Columbia view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 69°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KNYC)ESPN+ Lawrence A. Wien StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
Wagner Seahawks
1-5 · SOS #64
Win 28-13
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Princeton by 17
Total 46
DraftKings
PRIN -25.5
Total 43.5
Final Princeton by 15. Wagner beat the spread. 41 points — under the 43.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Princeton -25.5 (open Princeton -22.5) · O/U 43.5 · ML -5500 / +1300 · Wagner 7% no-vig · model vs market +8.5 pts, +7 pct pts (Wagner view)
Game-time weather: 72°F, Wind 5 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KEWR)Hameline Field at Wagner College StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Brown Bears
2-3 · SOS #81
Win 16-10
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Princeton by 6.3
Total 40.3
DraftKings
PRIN -4
Total 38.5
Final Princeton by 6. Princeton beat the spread. 26 points — under the 38.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Princeton -4 (open Princeton -6.5) · O/U 38.5 (open 36.5) · ML +138 / -173 · Princeton 60% no-vig · model vs market +2.3 pts, +6 pct pts (Princeton view)
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 48°F, Wind 15 mph NNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KTTN)ESPN+ Princeton StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hitShort home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded gamesHome favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: hit (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last gameRising-total close dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: Record 179 hits, 115 misses (61% hit rate) over 294 graded gamesSpread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: hit (n=294) · Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open - at
Harvard Crimson
6-0 · SOS #100
Loss 7-35
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Harvard by 8.4
Total 45.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Harvard by 28. 42 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 54°F, Wind 8 mph ESE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBOS)ESPN+ Harvard StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Cornell Big Red
3-3 · SOS #44
Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 26-25 · 54%
Our number
Princeton by 1
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly sunny, 57°F, Wind 5 mph N, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Princeton StadiumExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games - vs
Dartmouth Big Green
3-3 · SOS #51
Sat, Nov 7, 5:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 23-21 · 54%
Our number
Princeton by 2
Total 44
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Princeton StadiumExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
Yale Bulldogs
3-3 · SOS #83
Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 21-28 · 33%
Our number
Yale by 7
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Yale BowlExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games - vs
Pennsylvania Quakers
3-3 · SOS #97
Sat, Nov 21, 5:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 24-19 · 63%
Our number
Princeton by 5
Total 43
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Princeton StadiumExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
Times shown in your local time
Princeton Tigers stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-19.5
Adj. offense
13.5
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
33.0
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 20.3 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 14.3 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.56 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.23 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 150.7 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 185.5 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 126.0 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 232.3 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.83 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.17 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.83 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 0.67 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.05 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.05 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 40.6% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 44.2% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 10.8% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 11.6% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 11.0% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 14.4% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.72 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 2.86 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 0 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 0 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 60.5 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.01 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.12 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.04 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.07 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 40.0% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 40.0% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 21.4% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 30.7% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 31.6% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 42.5% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 44.2% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 57.6% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 45.8% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.