Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Columbia 23.1, Princeton 21.1 at Lawrence A. Wien Stadium in Week 5. That is a genuine toss-up: Columbia wins about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2 points and 44.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans low scoring.
Princeton is 1-1, scoring 18 and allowing 10.5 points per game (+7.5 per game). Columbia is 2-0, scoring 30 and allowing 25.5 points per game (+4.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Princeton by 21 and Columbia by 25 about 80% of the time.
Columbia gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Princeton would be favoured by 0.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Princeton 35, Columbia 7. Princeton won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 30 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Princeton / Columbia) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Princeton -1.5 → Columbia -1.5 | 42.5 | -112 / -111 |
| DraftKings | Princeton -1.5 → Columbia -1.5 | 42.5 | -112 / -111 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Columbia win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Columbia -2 | 44.2 | 55% |
| Market consensus | Columbia -1.5 | 42.5 | 50% |
| Blended projection | Columbia -1.5 | 44.0 | 54% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Columbia win probability
- model 55% · market (no-vig) 50% · difference +5 pts
- Margin
- model Columbia -2 · market Columbia -1.5 · difference +0.5 pts (Columbia view)
- Total
- model 44.2 · market 42.5 · difference +1.7
Model margin is 0.5 pts more toward Columbia than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Princeton 21.1, Columbia 23.1 | Columbia 55%wrong winner | 30.0 | 2.2 |
| New formula | Princeton 21.2, Columbia 24.0 | Columbia 57%wrong winner | 30.7 | 3.2 |
Final: Princeton 35, Columbia 7. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Princeton vs Columbia: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Princeton | Columbia |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.8 | 15.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.4 | 27.9 |
| Yards per play | 5.03 | 4.88 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.63 | 5.79 |
| Rushing yards per game | 137.0 | 124.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 200.4 | 191.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 158.1 | 167.0 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 229.0 | 205.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50 | 0.80 |
| Sacks per game | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| Stat | Princeton | Columbia |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.04 | -0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01 | +0.03 |
| Success rate | 40.6% | 37.8% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.2% | 44.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2% | 11.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.8% | 12.3% |
| Havoc rate | 11.4% | 13.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.1% | 14.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.02 | 3.02 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 3.66 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.1 | 64.9 |
| Stat | Princeton | Columbia |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.09 | -0.12 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.02 | +0.12 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.8% | 42.7% |
| Passing success rate | 37.2% | 33.6% |
| Run stuff rate | 16.0% | 19.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.1% | 22.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.4% | 33.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.8% | 39.9% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 49.3% | 45.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 46.8% | 50.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6% | 57.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Princeton schedule · Columbia schedule · all Week 5 projections
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