Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Harvard 26.9, Princeton 18.5 at Harvard Stadium in Week 8. That is a solid edge: Harvard wins about 71% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.4 points and 45.3 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Princeton is 4-1, scoring 23 and allowing 10.2 points per game (+12.8 per game). Harvard is 5-0, scoring 27.2 and allowing 14 points per game (+13.2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Princeton by 14 and Harvard by 31 about 80% of the time.
Harvard gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Harvard by about 6.3. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Princeton 7, Harvard 35. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 19.6 points and the total by 3.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Princeton 18.5, Harvard 26.9 | Harvard 71%right winner | 19.6 | 3.3 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Princeton 7, Harvard 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Princeton vs Harvard: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Princeton | Harvard |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.8 | 36.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.4 | 21.2 |
| Yards per play | 5.03 | 6.66 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.63 | 5.30 |
| Rushing yards per game | 137.0 | 169.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 200.4 | 276.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 158.1 | 139.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 229.0 | 190.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.20 | 0.91 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 1.10 | 1.73 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00 | 0.91 |
| Stat | Princeton | Harvard |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.17 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01 | -0.04 |
| Success rate | 40.6% | 45.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.2% | 43.4% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2% | 15.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.8% | 10.5% |
| Havoc rate | 11.4% | 11.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.1% | 9.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.02 | 0.00 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 0.00 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.1 | 67.1 |
| Stat | Princeton | Harvard |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.00 | +0.17 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.09 | +0.17 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.02 | -0.02 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.8% | 49.8% |
| Passing success rate | 37.2% | 46.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 16.0% | 16.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.1% | 38.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.4% | 27.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.8% | 48.3% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 49.3% | 44.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 46.8% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Princeton schedule · Harvard schedule · all Week 8 projections
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