2026 schedule
Harvard Crimson
2026 season so far
Harvard is 6-0 against the 100th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28.5 and allowing 12.8 points per game (+15.7 per game).
Harvard plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at Dartmouth in Week 9. We project Harvard 28, Dartmouth 21 — Harvard wins 67% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
10 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- at
New Hampshire Wildcats
1-3 · SOS #77
Win 31-7
Week 3
Our number· pregame
New Hampshire by 5.2
Total 60
DraftKings
HARV -14.5
Total 51.5
Final Harvard by 24. Harvard beat the spread. 38 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Harvard -14.5 (open Harvard -15.5) · O/U 51.5 (open 52.5) · ML -900 / +554 · New Hampshire 15% no-vig · model vs market +19.7 pts, +49 pct pts (New Hampshire view)
Wildcat Stadium (NH)Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games - at
Brown Bears
1-1 · SOS #81
Win 14-10
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Harvard by 1.8
Total 45.8
DraftKings
HARV -13.5
Total 42.5
Final Harvard by 4. Brown beat the spread. 24 points — under the 42.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Harvard -13.5 · O/U 42.5 (open 45.5) · ML -610 / +417 · Brown 18% no-vig · model vs market +11.7 pts, +27 pct pts (Brown view)
ESPN2 Centreville Bank StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hit - vs
Colgate Raiders
4-2 · SOS #84
Win 20-17
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Harvard by 15.5
Total 49.1
DraftKings
HARV -4.5
Total 40.5
Final Harvard by 3. Colgate beat the spread. 37 points — under the 40.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Harvard -4.5 · O/U 40.5 (open 36.5) · ML +158 / -200 · Harvard 63% no-vig · model vs market +11.0 pts, +21 pct pts (Harvard view)
Game-time weather: 57°F, Wind 9 mph ESE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBOS)ESPN+ Harvard StadiumPregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missedShort home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded gamesHome favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: hit (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last gameRising-total close dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: Record 179 hits, 115 misses (61% hit rate) over 294 graded gamesSpread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: hit (n=294) · Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open - at
Cornell Big Red
2-2 · SOS #44
Win 41-29
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Harvard by 5.2
Total 49.8
DraftKings
HARV -7
Total 41.5
Final Harvard by 12. Harvard beat the spread. 70 points — over the 41.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Harvard -7 · O/U 41.5 · ML -249 / +194 · Cornell 32% no-vig · model vs market +1.8 pts, +4 pct pts (Cornell view)
Game-time weather: 64°F, Wind 6 mph S.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KITH)ESPN+ Schoellkopf FieldPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missed - vs
Holy Cross Crusaders
2-5 · SOS #69
Win 30-7
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Harvard by 17.1
Total 53.1
DraftKings
HARV -15.5
Total 45.5
Final Harvard by 23. Harvard beat the spread. 37 points — under the 45.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Harvard -15.5 · O/U 45.5 (open 50.5) · ML +487 / -750 · Harvard 84% no-vig · model vs market +1.6 pts, +3 pct pts (Harvard view)
Game-time weather: Partly cloudy, 48°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBOS)ESPN+ Harvard StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hit - vs
Princeton Tigers
4-2 · SOS #128
Win 35-7
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Harvard by 8.4
Total 45.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Harvard by 28. 42 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 54°F, Wind 8 mph ESE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBOS)ESPN+ Harvard StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
Dartmouth Big Green
3-3 · SOS #51
Fri, Oct 30, 11:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 28-21 · 67%
Our number
Harvard by 7
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 47°F, Wind 10 mph NW, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDTESPNU Memorial Field (Dartmouth)ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Columbia Lions
4-2 · SOS #119
Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 35-17 · 88%
Our number
Harvard by 18
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Harvard StadiumExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games - at
Pennsylvania Quakers
3-3 · SOS #97
Sat, Nov 14, 6:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 29-19 · 74%
Our number
Harvard by 10
Total 48
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Franklin FieldExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Yale Bulldogs
3-3 · SOS #83
Sat, Nov 21, 8:30 PM
Week 12
Proj 29-25 · 62%
Our number
Harvard by 4
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPNU Fenway ParkExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games
Times shown in your local time
Harvard Crimson stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-10.4
Adj. offense
20.7
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
31.2
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 28.5 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 12.8 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.50 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 4.80 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 137.8 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 234.5 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 143.2 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 165.0 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.83 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 2.00 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.00 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.50 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.09 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.02 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 45.8% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 38.4% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 12.6% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 10.1% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 13.3% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 13.9% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 0.00 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 0.00 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 0 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 0 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 67.7 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.06 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.24 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.07 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.04 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 42.1% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 51.8% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 20.6% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 36.1% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 30.5% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 44.2% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 46.1% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 0.0% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 0.0% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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