Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Harvard 35.1, Holy Cross 18 at Harvard Stadium in Week 7. That is a heavy edge: Harvard wins about 87% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 17.1 points and 53.1 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Holy Cross is 2-4, scoring 22.3 and allowing 32.8 points per game (-10.5 per game). Harvard is 4-0, scoring 26.5 and allowing 15.8 points per game (+10.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Holy Cross by 5 and Harvard by 40 about 80% of the time.
Harvard gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Harvard by about 15. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Holy Cross 7, Harvard 30. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 5.9 points and the total by 16.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Holy Cross / Harvard) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Harvard -15.5 | 50.5 → 45.5 | +487 / -750 |
| DraftKings | Harvard -15.5 | 50.5 → 45.5 | +487 / -750 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Harvard win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Harvard -17 | 53.1 | 87% |
| Market consensus | Harvard -15.5 | 45.5 | 84% |
| Blended projection | Harvard -16 | 47.1 | 86% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Harvard win probability
- model 87% · market (no-vig) 84% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model Harvard -17.1 · market Harvard -15.5 · difference +1.6 pts (Harvard view)
- Total
- model 53.1 · market 45.5 · difference +7.6
Model margin is 1.6 pts more toward Harvard than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Holy Cross 18.0, Harvard 35.1 | Harvard 87%right winner | 5.9 | 16.1 |
| New formula | Holy Cross 19.8, Harvard 33.1 | Harvard 81%right winner | 9.7 | 16.0 |
Final: Holy Cross 7, Harvard 30. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Holy Cross vs Harvard: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Holy Cross | Harvard |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.5 | 36.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.8 | 21.2 |
| Yards per play | 4.82 | 6.66 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.87 | 5.30 |
| Rushing yards per game | 168.3 | 169.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 144.4 | 276.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 191.6 | 139.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 213.8 | 190.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.08 | 0.91 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 2.25 | 1.73 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.83 | 0.91 |
| Stat | Holy Cross | Harvard |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.15 | +0.17 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.03 | -0.04 |
| Success rate | 35.2% | 45.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.2% | 43.4% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.4% | 15.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3% | 10.5% |
| Havoc rate | 14.4% | 11.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.5% | 9.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.99 | 0.00 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.51 | 0.00 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.8 | 67.1 |
| Stat | Holy Cross | Harvard |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.08 | +0.17 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.23 | +0.17 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.08 | -0.02 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.7% | 49.8% |
| Passing success rate | 30.8% | 46.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.7% | 16.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.9% | 38.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.7% | 27.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 32.0% | 48.3% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.5% | 44.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 52.1% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.2% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Holy Cross schedule · Harvard schedule · all Week 7 projections
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