Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Harvard 23.8, Brown 22 at Centreville Bank Stadium in Week 4. That is a genuine toss-up: Harvard wins about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.8 points and 45.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans low scoring.
Harvard is 1-0, scoring 31 and allowing 7 points per game (+24 per game). Brown is 1-0, scoring 17 and allowing 10 points per game (+7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Harvard by 24 and Brown by 21 about 80% of the time.
Brown gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Harvard is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN2.
Result: Harvard 14, Brown 10. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2.2 points and the total by 21.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Harvard / Brown) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Harvard -13.5 | 45.5 → 42.5 | -610 / +417 |
| DraftKings | Harvard -13.5 | 45.5 → 42.5 | -610 / +417 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Brown win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Harvard -2 | 45.7 | 45% |
| Market consensus | Harvard -13.5 | 42.5 | 18% |
| Blended projection | Harvard -11.5 | 44.1 | 21% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Brown win probability
- model 45% · market (no-vig) 18% · difference +27 pts
- Margin
- model Harvard -1.8 · market Harvard -13.5 · difference +11.7 pts (Brown view)
- Total
- model 45.7 · market 42.5 · difference +3.2
Model margin is 11.7 pts more toward Brown than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Harvard 23.8, Brown 22.0 | Harvard 55%right winner | 2.2 | 21.7 |
| New formula | Harvard 30.5, Brown 23.7 | Harvard 66%right winner | 2.8 | 30.1 |
Final: Harvard 14, Brown 10. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Harvard vs Brown: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Harvard | Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.5 | 26.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.2 | 27.0 |
| Yards per play | 6.66 | 5.67 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.30 | 5.68 |
| Rushing yards per game | 169.8 | 104.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 276.8 | 285.4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 139.8 | 171.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 190.0 | 227.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.91 | 1.50 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Sacks per game | 1.73 | 1.80 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.91 | 2.70 |
| Stat | Harvard | Brown |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.17 | +0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.04 | +0.01 |
| Success rate | 45.9% | 41.7% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.4% | 46.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 15.2% | 11.9% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.5% | 13.7% |
| Havoc rate | 11.0% | 12.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 9.1% | 14.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 3.66 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 3.23 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.1 | 68.8 |
| Stat | Harvard | Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.17 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.17 | +0.04 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.02 | -0.02 |
| Rushing success rate | 49.8% | 40.5% |
| Passing success rate | 46.5% | 43.9% |
| Run stuff rate | 16.9% | 22.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 38.1% | 31.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.3% | 32.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.3% | 37.6% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.1% | 49.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 51.7% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Harvard schedule · Brown schedule · all Week 4 projections
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