2026 schedule
Brown Bears
2026 season so far
Brown is 3-3 against the 81st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 18.8 and allowing 16.2 points per game (+2.6 per game).
Brown plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs Pennsylvania in Week 9. We project Brown 24, Pennsylvania 21 — Brown wins 59% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
10 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- at
New Haven Chargers
1-3 · SOS #74
Win 17-10
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Brown by 3.5
Total 49.7
DraftKings
BRWN -10
Total 50.5
Final Brown by 7. New Haven beat the spread. 27 points — under the 50.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Brown -10 (open Brown -9.5) · O/U 50.5 · ML -425 / +311 · New Haven 23% no-vig · model vs market +6.5 pts, +18 pct pts (New Haven view)
Ralph F. DellaCamera StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed - vs
Harvard Crimson
2-0 · SOS #100
Loss 10-14
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Harvard by 1.8
Total 45.8
DraftKings
HARV -13.5
Total 42.5
Final Harvard by 4. Brown beat the spread. 24 points — under the 42.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Harvard -13.5 · O/U 42.5 (open 45.5) · ML -610 / +417 · Brown 18% no-vig · model vs market +11.7 pts, +27 pct pts (Brown view)
ESPN2 Centreville Bank StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hit - at
Rhode Island Rams
3-3 · SOS #88
Loss 10-13
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Rhode Island by 9.9
Total 49.9
DraftKings
URI -3.5
Total 46.5
Final Rhode Island by 3. Brown beat the spread. 23 points — under the 46.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Rhode Island -3.5 · O/U 46.5 (open 42.5) · ML +139 / -175 · Rhode Island 60% no-vig · model vs market +6.4 pts, +14 pct pts (Rhode Island view)
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 70°F, Wind 10 mph ENE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPVD)Centreville Bank StadiumPregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missed - vs
Bryant Bulldogs
4-2 · SOS #132
Win 28-13
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Brown by 11.1
Total 47.1
DraftKings
BRWN -5.5
Total 43.5
Final Brown by 15. Brown beat the spread. 41 points — under the 43.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Brown -5.5 (open Brown -4.5) · O/U 43.5 (open 42.5) · ML +147 / -184 · Brown 62% no-vig · model vs market +5.6 pts, +15 pct pts (Brown view)
Game-time weather: 63°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPVD)ESPN+ Brown Stadium (RI)Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
Princeton Tigers
4-1 · SOS #128
Loss 10-16
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Princeton by 6.3
Total 40.3
DraftKings
PRIN -4
Total 38.5
Final Princeton by 6. Princeton beat the spread. 26 points — under the 38.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Princeton -4 (open Princeton -6.5) · O/U 38.5 (open 36.5) · ML +138 / -173 · Princeton 60% no-vig · model vs market +2.3 pts, +6 pct pts (Princeton view)
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 48°F, Wind 15 mph NNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KTTN)ESPN+ Princeton StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hitShort home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded gamesHome favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: hit (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last gameRising-total close dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: Record 179 hits, 115 misses (61% hit rate) over 294 graded gamesSpread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: hit (n=294) · Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open - vs
Cornell Big Red
3-3 · SOS #44
Win 38-31
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Cornell by 0.6
Total 50.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Brown by 7. 69 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Partly cloudy, 57°F, Wind 5 mph SW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPVD)ESPN+ Brown Stadium (RI)Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hit - vs
Pennsylvania Quakers
3-3 · SOS #97
Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 24-21 · 59%
Our number
Brown by 3
Total 45
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Sunny, 54°F, Wind 8 mph N, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Brown Stadium (RI)ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games - at
Yale Bulldogs
3-3 · SOS #83
Sat, Nov 7, 5:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 21-30 · 28%
Our number
Yale by 9
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Yale Bowl - vs
Columbia Lions
4-2 · SOS #119
Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 28-21 · 69%
Our number
Brown by 7
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Brown Stadium (RI) - at
Dartmouth Big Green
3-3 · SOS #51
Sat, Nov 21, 6:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 21-25 · 39%
Our number
Dartmouth by 4
Total 46
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Memorial Field (Dartmouth)ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Times shown in your local time
Brown Bears stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-21.8
Adj. offense
13.4
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
35.2
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 18.8 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 16.2 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.00 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 4.92 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 114.0 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 242.8 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 130.3 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 228.8 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 2.17 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.33 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.17 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 3.50 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.05 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | -0.02 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 39.1% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 40.7% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 9.1% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 9.3% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 11.8% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 15.2% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 0.00 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 0.00 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 0 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 0 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 71.3 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.02 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.07 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | -0.01 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.04 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 40.8% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 37.8% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 22.0% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 22.6% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 28.4% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 37.6% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 41.7% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 0.0% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 0.0% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.