Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Brown 26.6, New Haven 23.1 at Ralph F. DellaCamera Stadium in Week 3. That is a lean: Brown wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.5 points and 49.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Brown has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. New Haven is 1-2, scoring 13 and allowing 33 points per game (-20 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Brown by 26 and New Haven by 19 about 80% of the time.
New Haven gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Brown is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Result: Brown 17, New Haven 10. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.5 points and the total by 22.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Brown / New Haven) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Brown -9.5 → Brown -10 | 50.5 | -425 / +311 |
| DraftKings | Brown -9.5 → Brown -10 | 50.5 | -425 / +311 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | New Haven win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Brown -3.5 | 49.7 | 41% |
| Market consensus | Brown -10 | 50.5 | 23% |
| Blended projection | Brown -9 | 51.2 | 27% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- New Haven win probability
- model 41% · market (no-vig) 23% · difference +18 pts
- Margin
- model Brown -3.5 · market Brown -10 · difference +6.5 pts (New Haven view)
- Total
- model 49.7 · market 50.5 · difference -0.8
Model margin is 6.5 pts more toward New Haven than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Brown 26.6, New Haven 23.1 | Brown 59%right winner | 3.5 | 22.7 |
| New formula | Brown 30.6, New Haven 27.9 | Brown 56%right winner | 4.3 | 31.5 |
Final: Brown 17, New Haven 10. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Brown vs New Haven: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Brown | New Haven |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.5 | 27.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.0 | 28.6 |
| Yards per play | 5.67 | 6.26 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.68 | 5.47 |
| Rushing yards per game | 104.5 | 154.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 285.4 | 242.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 171.6 | 175.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 227.4 | 182.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50 | 1.22 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.40 | 1.22 |
| Sacks per game | 1.80 | 2.78 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.70 | 0.89 |
| Stat | Brown | New Haven |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03 | -0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01 | +0.00 |
| Success rate | 41.7% | 40.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 46.0% | 39.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.9% | 12.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.7% | 13.2% |
| Havoc rate | 12.5% | 12.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.9% | 11.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.66 | 0.00 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.23 | 0.00 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.8 | 63.3 |
| Stat | Brown | New Haven |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.01 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04 | -0.02 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | -0.00 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.02 | -0.00 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.5% | 41.3% |
| Passing success rate | 43.9% | 40.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 22.8% | 22.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.5% | 29.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.0% | 24.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.6% | 37.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 49.3% | 31.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 51.7% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Brown schedule · New Haven schedule · all Week 3 projections
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