Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Rhode Island 29.9, Brown 20 at Centreville Bank Stadium in Week 5. That is a solid edge: Rhode Island wins about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.9 points and 49.9 combined points.
Brown is 1-1, scoring 13.5 and allowing 12 points per game (+1.5 per game). Rhode Island is 2-3, scoring 24.2 and allowing 26.6 points per game (-2.4 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Brown by 13 and Rhode Island by 32 about 80% of the time.
Rhode Island gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Rhode Island by about 7.8.
Result: Brown 10, Rhode Island 13. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 6.9 points and the total by 26.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Brown / Rhode Island) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Rhode Island -3.5 | 42.5 → 46.5 | +139 / -175 |
| DraftKings | Rhode Island -3.5 | 42.5 → 46.5 | +139 / -175 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Rhode Island win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Rhode Island -10 | 49.9 | 74% |
| Market consensus | Rhode Island -3.5 | 46.5 | 60% |
| Blended projection | Rhode Island -4.5 | 47.8 | 62% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Rhode Island win probability
- model 74% · market (no-vig) 60% · difference +14 pts
- Margin
- model Rhode Island -9.9 · market Rhode Island -3.5 · difference +6.4 pts (Rhode Island view)
- Total
- model 49.9 · market 46.5 · difference +3.4
Model margin is 6.4 pts more toward Rhode Island than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Brown 20.0, Rhode Island 29.9 | Rhode Island 74%right winner | 6.9 | 26.9 |
| New formula | Brown 20.0, Rhode Island 29.6 | Rhode Island 73%right winner | 6.7 | 26.6 |
Final: Brown 10, Rhode Island 13. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Brown vs Rhode Island: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Brown | Rhode Island |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.5 | 31.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.0 | 21.1 |
| Yards per play | 5.67 | 6.75 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.68 | 5.15 |
| Rushing yards per game | 104.5 | 158.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 285.4 | 296.1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 171.6 | 175.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 227.4 | 193.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.40 | 1.21 |
| Sacks per game | 1.80 | 2.57 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.70 | 2.29 |
| Stat | Brown | Rhode Island |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03 | +0.08 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01 | +0.01 |
| Success rate | 41.7% | 43.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 46.0% | 41.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.9% | 15.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.7% | 12.3% |
| Havoc rate | 12.5% | 11.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.9% | 10.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.66 | 3.58 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.23 | 4.23 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 4 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.8 | 67.4 |
| Stat | Brown | Rhode Island |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.01 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04 | +0.15 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | +0.07 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.02 | -0.05 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.5% | 45.2% |
| Passing success rate | 43.9% | 44.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 22.8% | 17.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.5% | 34.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.0% | 26.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.6% | 45.3% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 49.3% | 34.4% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 60.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 51.7% | 60.5% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Brown schedule · Rhode Island schedule · all Week 5 projections
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