Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Brown 29.1, Bryant 18 at Brown Stadium (RI) in Week 6. That is a solid edge: Brown wins about 77% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.1 points and 47 combined points.
Bryant is 4-1, scoring 22 and allowing 22.4 points per game (-0.4 per game). Brown is 1-2, scoring 12.3 and allowing 12.3 points per game (+0 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bryant by 11 and Brown by 34 about 80% of the time.
Brown gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Brown by about 9. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Bryant 13, Brown 28. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.9 points and the total by 6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Bryant / Brown) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Brown -4.5 → Brown -5.5 | 42.5 → 43.5 | +147 / -184 |
| DraftKings | Brown -4.5 → Brown -5.5 | 42.5 → 43.5 | +147 / -184 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Brown win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Brown -11 | 47.0 | 77% |
| Market consensus | Brown -5.5 | 43.5 | 62% |
| Blended projection | Brown -6.5 | 45.0 | 67% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Brown win probability
- model 77% · market (no-vig) 62% · difference +15 pts
- Margin
- model Brown -11.1 · market Brown -5.5 · difference +5.6 pts (Brown view)
- Total
- model 47.0 · market 43.5 · difference +3.5
Model margin is 5.6 pts more toward Brown than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Bryant 18.0, Brown 29.1 | Brown 77%right winner | 3.9 | 6.0 |
| New formula | Bryant 18.3, Brown 28.9 | Brown 76%right winner | 4.4 | 6.2 |
Final: Bryant 13, Brown 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Bryant vs Brown: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Bryant | Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.5 | 26.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.3 | 27.0 |
| Yards per play | 5.35 | 5.67 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.08 | 5.68 |
| Rushing yards per game | 128.8 | 104.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 227.5 | 285.4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 156.2 | 171.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 270.4 | 227.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.83 | 1.50 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75 | 1.80 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.25 | 2.70 |
| Stat | Bryant | Brown |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.10 | +0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08 | +0.01 |
| Success rate | 37.2% | 41.7% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.9% | 46.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.0% | 11.9% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.4% | 13.7% |
| Havoc rate | 11.2% | 12.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.8% | 14.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.51 | 3.66 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.18 | 3.23 |
| Average starting field position | opp 15 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 14 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.6 | 68.8 |
| Stat | Bryant | Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.08 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.14 | +0.04 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.18 | -0.02 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.6% | 40.5% |
| Passing success rate | 37.8% | 43.9% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.1% | 22.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.4% | 31.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.8% | 32.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.8% | 37.6% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 48.0% | 49.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 27.9% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 47.5% | 51.7% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Bryant schedule · Brown schedule · all Week 6 projections
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