Matchup analysis
Our model projects Harvard 35, Columbia 17 at Harvard Stadium in Week 10. That is a heavy edge: Harvard wins about 88% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 18.2 points and 52 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Columbia is 4-2 against the 119th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25.7 and allowing 29.8 points per game (-4.1 per game). Harvard is 6-0 against the 100th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28.5 and allowing 12.8 points per game (+15.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Columbia by 4 and Harvard by 41 about 80% of the time.
Harvard gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Harvard by about 16.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Columbia vs Harvard: stat comparison
| Stat | Columbia | Harvard |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.7 | 28.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.8 | 12.8 |
| Yards per play | 5.57 | 5.50 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.48 | 4.80 |
| Rushing yards per game | 144.2 | 137.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 284.0 | 234.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 176.8 | 143.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 228.0 | 165.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50 | 0.83 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.17 | 1.50 |
| Stat | Columbia | Harvard |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03 | +0.09 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.10 | +0.02 |
| Success rate | 41.6% | 45.8% |
| Success rate allowed | 40.7% | 38.4% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.1% | 12.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.6% | 10.1% |
| Havoc rate | 11.6% | 13.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.9% | 13.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 76.8 | 67.7 |
| Stat | Columbia | Harvard |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.00 | -0.06 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.06 | +0.24 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07 | +0.07 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12 | -0.04 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.4% | 42.1% |
| Passing success rate | 42.9% | 51.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.3% | 20.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.5% | 36.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.7% | 30.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.0% | 44.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.0% | 46.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Columbia schedule · Harvard schedule · all Week 10 projections
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